27 Jul 2015

Diversification in Today’s Market

One of the bedrock ideas behind Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) is that diversification lowers risk. A simple view of that concept is that a portfolio of many stocks is less risky than a portfolio that contains one stock because the impact of a failure like Lehman Brothers or Enron won’t blow apart your whole portfolio.  Of course, all stocks can go down substantially, like they did in 2008, so diversification… Read More

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8 Jul 2015

When Bubbles Burst: China Edition

While Greece is getting all of the headlines, the bubble in mainland Chinese stocks that I wrote about in April and June is now bursting (click here or here for refreshers).  The Shenzhen index is down -38.5 percent from its peak on June 12th through yesterday and the Shanghai index is down -27.9 percent over the same time period. The following shows these two indexes in yellow and orange compared to the S&P 500 in blue… Read More

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7 Jul 2015

How Investors See the Greek Problem in Two Charts

While I’m dying to take a break from the ongoing financial crisis in Greece, I also want to show how the calamity isn’t destabilizing markets so far. Importantly, US stocks barely budged yesterday in response to the news, although stocks overseas didn’t fare as well.  The FTSE Developed Markets ex North America index fell by -1.61 percent while the FTSE Emerging Markets Index dropped -1.98 percent. While prices tell us… Read More

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6 Jul 2015

Greece to Creditors: Heck NO

In what could easily be described as one of the highest stakes showdowns in the world today, the Greek people resoundingly voted ‘no’ to accepting conditions set by their creditors for a third bailout.   More than 60 percent of Greek voters rejected terms for additional aid set forth by what is colloquially known as the ‘Troika,’ a triumvirate made up of the European Central Bank (ECB), the International Monetary… Read More

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2 Jul 2015

Doing Well by Doing Good

The end of the second quarter is always a relief for me because for the past six years, it has meant that we are finally through getting our CEFEX certification. As you probably already know, we serve our clients in a fiduciary capacity, which means that we are required to act in the best interest of our clients.  You may think that everyone in the financial services industry has to… Read More

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30 Jun 2015

Markets Respond Reasonably Well to Greek News

As I wrote yesterday’s edition of Daily Insights on Sunday night, it was ‘obvious’ that stocks would respond poorly to the news and that bonds would fare reasonably well. In a sense, I’m not surprised at the market reaction yesterday.  That said, I would also not have been surprised if markets had been much worse than they were.  After the fact, I can say that the response is what I… Read More

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29 Jun 2015

The Situation in Greece Intensifies

After nearly five years of kicking the can down the road, it appears as if the situation in Greece may be at an inflection point. Yesterday, the European Central Bank (ECB) said that they would not provide any additional emergency funding to the nation’s banking system.  Without the new funding, most people in and out of Greece believe that there will be a run on the banks. People in Greece… Read More

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26 Jun 2015

The State of Housing in Three Charts

I was reading in the Wall Street Journal that homes with 15 or more bedrooms were becoming very fashionable and, in a different article, master suites are now so large that they feature media rooms, offices, gyms, kitchenettes and laundry rooms. In other words, housing is back! Okay, maybe those things and the race to build a $100 million spec home (yet another article) signal that the rich are doing… Read More

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25 Jun 2015

The Sun is Shining on Small Cap Stocks

A number of people have noted that small cap stocks are really strong this year, as you can see from the chart below. I want to illustrate this outperformance a little differently in the chart below, which requires a little explaining. In the first chart above, I showed what a dollar invested in each index would have turned into.  Although you can’t invest a dollar in anything, let alone an index… Read More

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24 Jun 2015

Maximizing Social Security

It’s a little hard to believe, but I read more and more in the popular press about maximizing Social Security benefits.  One of the best-selling books this year is called ‘Get What’s Yours: The Secrets to Maxing Out Your Social Security’ by Laurence Kotlikoff.    I tried to read it earlier this year and admit that even I found it was pretty dry, and I think it’s fairly obvious that… Read More

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