Daily Insights

26 Sep 2022

Fed Indirectly Signals Recession

When the Federal Reserve raised interest rates last week, they also published their Summary of Economic Projections, which you can find here. You won’t find the word ‘recession’ in the document, but there is a pretty strong signal that the Fed thinks a recession is on the horizon in 2022. The second page includes a nice table that shows what the Federal Reserve Board members and presidents estimate for economic… Read More

By David Ott Tags: Economy, Federal Reserve, Inflation, Interest Rates, Markets, Stocks, Wall Street

19 Sep 2022

Core Inflation Knocks Market

Stocks sold off sharply this week, as noted above, mostly because markets had anticipated good news on the inflation front and didn’t get it. When I first saw the release, I thought it looked pretty good because the headline rate of inflation was only a tenth of one percent for the month, which brought the rolling one-year rate down to 7.8 percent. While 7.8 percent is still far too high,… Read More

By David Ott Tags: Bonds, CPI, Economy, Federal Reserve, Inflation, Interest Rates, Markets, Wall Street

12 Sep 2022

It’s Good to be the Queen or King, Financially Speaking

I don’t have any real reason to be sad about Queen Elizabeth’s passing, but I felt a little down about it anyway. I’m a little embarrassed to say that I think I just loved the performances of Claire Foy and Oliva Colman in the Crown and Helen Mirren in The Queen, even if the portrayals could be tough. In any case, I read several articles from our press, but I… Read More

By David Ott Tags: Royal Family, Royals, Taxes

6 Sep 2022

Happy Anniversary – Acropolis Turns 20!

On August 27th, Acropolis turned 20 years old. We’re not great about celebrating that kind of thing, so it took an email from Bob Schramm to even raise the subject. I’m embarrassed to say that I knew it was at the end of August but thought it was either the 26th or 28th (and being right ‘on average’ doesn’t work with dates). In some ways, it feels like just the other day. I vividly… Read More

By David Ott Tags: 20th Anniversary, Acropolis, Anniversary

29 Aug 2022

The Word From Jackson Hole

In the 1970s, the Federal Reserve Board of Kansas City put on a series of three-day symposiums and invited economists, central bankers, and journalists to the Great American West to discuss the day’s topics. Former Fed Chair Paul Volker, who famously broke the back of inflation, liked to fly fish, so he steered the conference to Jackson Hole, Wyoming, in 1981, where it’s stayed ever since. The event became a… Read More

By David Ott Tags: Economy, Federal Reserve, Inflation, Interest Rates, Markets, Wall Street

15 Aug 2022

Fed Tightening and Stocks

While inflation may or may not have peaked, Federal Reserve officials are still talking about raising interest rates. Several Fed officials called for rate hikes through 2023, and St. Louis Fed President said that the overnight rate should be four percent by the end of this calendar year (it’s currently between 2.25 and 2.50 percent). Although the Fed is already raising rates, a process also known as tightening, I wondered… Read More

By David Ott Tags: Bonds, Economy, Federal Reserve, Inflation, Interest Rates, Markets, Wall Street

8 Aug 2022

Warren Buffet

I heard an amazing statistic a few weeks ago: Berkshire Hathaway, Warren Buffett’s investment vehicle, could lose 99 percent of its value and still enjoy a track record that beats the S&P 500. Over the weekend, Berkshire released their second-quarter earnings, which reminded me of my newfound fact, so I pulled up the data. Sure enough, it’s true. And perhaps even more remarkably, it’s been consistently true since the year… Read More

By David Ott Tags: Berkshire Hathaway, Investing, Markets, Stocks, Wall Street, Warren Buffett

1 Aug 2022

Patriots for a Weaker Dollar

I sometimes include changes in the dollar in the market summary that precedes the data table above. I cover the dollar less and less, though, because it’s so abstract. That said, the dollar has been immensely strong recently, and it’s impacting our portfolios. Any patriot likes the sound of a strong currency – after all, a strong currency should reflect a strong country. And a weak or debased currency is… Read More

By David Ott Tags: Currency Hedging, Currency Prices, Economy, Inflation, Interest Rates, Markets, Wall Street

25 Jul 2022

Looking at Inflation, Backwards and Forwards

Inflation is hard to measure, which is why there are many ways to measure it. In addition to the Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) indexes that I’ve discussed in recent months, there are also Producer Price Indexes (PPI), the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) indexes, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) purchased price index, the GDP price index, and the GDP Price Deflator index. Oh my! While I don’t intend for this letter… Read More

By David Ott Tags: CPI, Economy, Inflation, Interest Rates, Investing, Markets, PCE, Wall Street

18 Jul 2022

Looking at Inflation, Backwards and Forwards

After quietly lying dormant for several decades, inflation is today’s big story in economics and markets. We all feel it at the grocery and pump, not to mention airline tickets, which are up more than a third from a year ago. It’s also dictating central bank policy, here and abroad, and everyone is rightly wondering whether that central bank policy will push global economies into a recession if it hasn’t… Read More

By David Ott Tags: Economy, Federal Reserve, Inflation, Markets, Wall Street

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