24 Jan 2022

Big Bets Prove Costly

The stock market is suffering a setback, mostly due to the change in tone from the Federal Reserve. That isn’t the whole story, in my opinion, however, because I don’t think it fully explains why the worst returns have been in the hottest part of the market, as I outlined last week. Although I don’t have any particular evidence, I think that the selloff is related to deleveraging by hyper-aggressive… Read More

11 Jan 2022

Portfolio Insights

We are pleased to provide a digital copy of Portfolio Insights, our quarterly newsletter. Table of Contents: Stock Market Summary Bond Market Review Visualizing Inflation The Big Picture Click here to read the issue: Q4 2021 Portfolio Insights

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3 Jan 2022

The S&P 500 Doubled in Three Years. Now What?

I know I’ve said this before, but I’ll repeat again what Carly Simon sang in her 1971 hit Anticipation: “These are the good old days.” WE now have 96-years of high-quality market data, and a quick look at the numbers showed a few interesting things: The nominal change in the S&P 500 was in the 92nd percentile of all rolling three-year returns. Inflation annualized at 3.6 percent during that time,… Read More