Ever since ChatGPT launched at the end of 2022, conversations about what AI might mean for the economy and our portfolios have been hard to avoid. Even a major geopolitical shock like the 2026 Iran conflict proved to be a distraction measured in weeks. I don’t claim to be an expert on AI, but I use it every day in my work and have spent time with two of the… Read More
A question has come up repeatedly over the past month, as markets reacted to the war in Iran and the associated spike in oil prices. The expectation, rooted in decades of experience, is straightforward: stocks fall, and defensive assets should step in to cushion the blow. This time, it didn’t work that way. Global stocks fell by -6.1 percent, as expected. The S&P 500 fell a little less, -5.0 percent…. Read More
At the 2025 Acropolis Investor Social — a wonderful evening, only to be topped by this year’s Social — I presented the chart below. The colors were slightly different, and at the time, I hadn’t included the S&P 500 or the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index. But the message was clear: pockets of speculative excess were forming in unusual corners of the market. I began by revealing Bitcoin. Over the final… Read More
I would estimate that I’ve spent less than an hour thinking about silver in my career, and most of it was preparing to write this. I had heard that silver was on a tear, as was gold, but even more so. I only looked at the last year, but the chart below shows that since early February 2025, ignoring Friday, gold has nearly doubled, and Silver was up 3.5x. The… Read More
A few months ago, I read Coming into View: How AI and Other Megatrends Will Shape Your Investments by Joe Davis, Vanguard’s Chief Economist. It’s a thoughtful book that I recommend. It isn’t overly technical, and it frames the biggest questions investors face today: AI, debt and deficits, demographics, potential deglobalization, and—hardest of all to measure—geopolitical risk. The core question Davis keeps returning to is deceptively simple: can AI generate… Read More
Many people are asking whether we’re in the middle of an AI bubble, and the answer, in my opinion, is probably yes. The much harder question is what to do about it. A recent analysis by Jason Furman, a Harvard economist and former Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Obama, calculated that 92 percent of economic growth in the first half of 2025 was related to data-center… Read More
For several years, Morningstar has released its annual Mind the Gap study, which highlights the difference between what a fund returns and the returns investors actually realize. The study underscores a familiar struggle: investors chase performance—jumping into funds after the best gains have passed, or bailing out during a slump only to miss the rebound. The penalty for this behavior is steeper than many realize. Over the 10 years ending… Read More
Perhaps one of the longest-running debates in the investment industry is the so-called “active vs. passive” debate. Most people understand it this way: Will active managers who pick stocks (or bonds) fare better than index funds? The industry of stock-pickers says yes; the index fund companies say no way. The name “passive” is just terrible. It sounds like nobody is doing anything, when in fact index investing is a reflection… Read More
It’s not surprising that clients are inquiring about gold, as it has risen 25.3 percent so far this year. When we started this business in August 2002, I thought gold was a terrible investment idea. However, in the 273 months since then, it has handily beaten foreign stocks and bonds, and even eked out a small win over the S&P 500. That’s right, during this time frame, gold gained 10.9… Read More
For the past five or so years, I’ve been inundated with pitches from alternative investment managers for private investment funds. The flagship private market strategy is private equity, which includes private credit, private real estate, and infrastructure. Like public markets, these broad categories can be broken down further, but the basic point is that anything you can get in the public market is also available in the private market. A… Read More
