I would estimate that I’ve spent less than an hour thinking about silver in my career, and most of it was preparing to write this. I had heard that silver was on a tear, as was gold, but even more so. I only looked at the last year, but the chart below shows that since early February 2025, ignoring Friday, gold has nearly doubled, and Silver was up 3.5x. The… Read More
We have all noticed that the S&P 500 has become unusually concentrated. What is less obvious is how today compares to earlier eras, simply because the data are harder to find. Bloomberg published a helpful chart over the weekend using the UBS Global Investment Returns 2025 Yearbook (Dimson, Marsh, and Staunton of London Business School), extending back to 1900. Because the series is incomplete before 1925, I anchored the analysis… Read More
Last week, I outlined the views of Joe Davis, Vanguard’s Chief Economist, who argues in his recent book that the economic and market outlook for the next decade largely hinges on whether AI delivers meaningful productivity gains. In the bull case, AI performs as hoped. Productivity improves, economic growth remains durable, markets benefit, and the US is better able to manage the risks associated with large and growing deficits and… Read More
Last week, I wrote about Alan Greenspan’s now-famous phrase, “irrational exuberance,” and made the case that timing the market is, at best, a fool’s errand. Greenspan uttered those words so early in the tech bubble that investors who sold after his warning and sat in cash ended up with roughly the same post-crash results as those who stayed invested through the rise and fall. This week, I found myself thinking… Read More
The jobs market is cooling down. The unemployment rate in August was 4.3 percent. In the pandemic, the unemployment rate peaked at 14.8 percent, but fell to 3.4 percent in April 2023. While the modest tick up from 3.4 to 4.3 percent isn’t great, some of the recent payroll data hasn’t met expectations either. The most recent monthly reading showed that just 22k jobs were created, less than expectations. Worse… Read More
Last week, I described Vanguard’s take on growth and inflation, and it got me thinking about inflation. In general, I was comforted by their views, which I characterized as ‘Steady as She Goes,’ but the inflation number started to bother me a little bit. Their forecast is for core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure for inflation, and Vanguard projected 3.0 percent for 2025 and… Read More
Last week, we had the pleasure of hosting a very sharp economist from Vanguard who shared the firm’s latest views on the economy. I found the conversation illuminating because it helped cut through much of the noise we often hear in the financial media. I’m not suggesting their forecasts are more or less accurate than anyone else’s. That’s an impossible standard, since no one knows what the future holds, especially… Read More
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act is now law. It’s a 940-page document, and I haven’t read it, but my reliable tax sources are highlighting some of the key provisions for individuals that I thought you might find helpful. Before I get into the OBBBA (or OBBB or OBB; they’re still working on the acronym), it’s worth noting that Missouri Governor Mike Kehoe signed a bill that will eliminate individual… Read More
A few months ago, the term ‘stagflation’ was mentioned too casually and frequently, in my opinion. Investors were worried about the impact of a trade war, which is natural, but were too quick to go to “The S Word.” Stagflation is a portmanteau of stagnation and inflation, coined in the 1970s when economic growth was very low (and sometimes negative) and inflation was very high. The term stagnation was often… Read More
It’s not surprising that clients are inquiring about gold, as it has risen 25.3 percent so far this year. When we started this business in August 2002, I thought gold was a terrible investment idea. However, in the 273 months since then, it has handily beaten foreign stocks and bonds, and even eked out a small win over the S&P 500. That’s right, during this time frame, gold gained 10.9… Read More
