30 Jan 2017

A Quote to Consider from Sir John Templeton

I am continually amazed by the huge number of thoughtful and apropos quotes that concern investing.  I’ve been writing and editing our quarterly newsletter, Portfolio Insights, for more than 15 years and I can still find plenty of great quotes without too many repeats. While I enjoy a great quote, I can’t say that any of them rise to the level of being an investing philosophy to live by, except… Read More

27 Jan 2017

2017 Forecasts: Part V

This is the last in a series of forecasts for 2017 and the last few questions are all about politics. What will happen in Washington with taxes?   Corporate tax rate is cut to 25 percent or lower. Top personal rate is reduced to 33 percent or lower. Estate tax is limited. Carried interest loophole is eliminated. None of the Above. Maybe I’m mixed up, but I think that this… Read More

26 Jan 2017

2017 Forecasts: Part IV

So far, you all aren’t getting tired of these forecasts (guesses), but before we start, I want to make a quick note: yesterday’s stock related forecasts made heavy use of Morningstar’s discounted cash flow (DCF) models. I don’t want you to get the impression that we use these models so heavily in our stock selection process since that just isn’t the case.  At some point, I will offer more details… Read More

25 Jan 2017

2017 Forecasts: Part III

The Barron’s predictions continue on today – previous questions and ‘answers’ for 2017 can be seen here and here. Question 5: Which FANG stock will fare best in 2017? Facebook (FB) Amazon (AMZN) Netflix (NFLX) Alphabet/Google (GOOGL) I think that the FANG stock story is a little played out – these were the four hottest stocks of 2015 and none did anything particularly interesting in 2016. Last year, I noted… Read More

24 Jan 2017

2017 Forecasts: Part II

This week, I’m making my predictions for 2017 based on the 16th annual Barron’s forecasting challenge.  I answered the first two questions yesterday, which you can find here. Today, I’m tackling two questions, starting with naming the top performing sector within the S&P 500.  There are 11 sectors and Barron’s is offering five choices, so technically, it’s not the best sector, but the best sector of the choices that Barron’s provides… Read More

23 Jan 2017

2017 Forecast: Part 1

Last year, Barron’s offered their readers a chance to test their forecasting skills by asking a number of multiple choices questions about what might happen in 2017.  I answered some of the questions in Daily Insights last year here and here. I revealed how my answers fared at our First Annual Investor’s Social last week, which I thought was a great success.  I want to thank everyone for coming and said… Read More

17 Jan 2017

I am a Capitalist

Last week, I had a very enjoyable meeting with a valued client and long-time reader.  In the meeting, he said that I should publish some of my old Daily Insights now and again, something I plan to do from time to time when I don’t have an idea (like now) on periodic Throwback Thursdays.   The commentary below dates back to August, 2011, when stocks lost more than 15 percent… Read More

9 Jan 2017

How Long is the Long Term?

One of the tried and true tenets of successful investing is taking a long-term perspective. Warren Buffet says that his favorite holding period is forever.  He doesn’t always hang on that long, but still recommends that you should ‘only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10-years.’ Regarded academic Jeremy Siegel wrote the buy and hold bible, titled ‘Stock for the long run,’… Read More

3 Jan 2017

2017 Wall Street Forecasts

It’s forecast time on Wall Street and despite the folly of it, individuals and professionals alike pay attention anyway. On average, and according to Bespoke Investment Group, the 15 most prestigious analysts and strategists are calling for a measly five percent gain, which would put the S&P 500 at 2,356 at year end, compared to 2,234 from last week. Collectively, that’s the lowest average forecast since 2005, when the strategists… Read More