2017 Forecasts: Part V

This is the last in a series of forecasts for 2017 and the last few questions are all about politics.

  1. What will happen in Washington with taxes?  

  1. Corporate tax rate is cut to 25 percent or lower.
  2. Top personal rate is reduced to 33 percent or lower.
  3. Estate tax is limited.
  4. Carried interest loophole is eliminated.
  5. None of the Above.

Maybe I’m mixed up, but I think that this question may be easier than some of the others because I believe that more than one of these outcomes is likely.

I can’t believe that none of these will happen, so E is definitely out.  The lobby for the carried interest is powerful, so I wouldn’t bet on D and despite major efforts, George W. Bush only got rid of the estate tax for one year, so C seems unlikely to me too.

To me, it seems likely that both A and B will happen, but I am going to go with the lower top personal tax rate (B) because it’s the simpler of the two remaining choices.

  1. Which of Donald Trump’s cabinet members won’t be on the job at year end (includes nomination rejections and resignations)?

  1. Rex Tillerson
  2. Betsy DeVos
  3. Jeff Sessions
  4. Steve Mnuchin
  5. All will be on the job.

I really don’t have an opinion about this, so I’ll effectively not choose and say that all will be on the job at year end (E).

  1. Where will Barack Obama be working at the end of 2017?

  1. Silicon Valley
  2. Academia
  3. Think Tank
  4. Public Speaking Circuit
  5. Something Else

Like the tax question, I think Obama might end up doing more than one of the things.  I’m going to go with the public speaking circuit (D) because who could resist pulling in $250,000 or more for a few hours work? Nobody before him, as best as I can tell.

He may end up at a think tank or in academia (or both), but those seem less certain than the circuit.

Well, that’s it for my 2017 forecasts.  I’m eager to see how they play out over the rest of the year.  Thanks for playing along!