Economy Archives - Acropolis Investment Management

2 Dec 2024

Chance of Recession? About Average

A year ago, the consensus was that the US economy would likely enter a recession within a year. The yield curve was inverted, the index of leading economic indicators was in the tank, and it wasn’t clear when the Fed would start cutting rates. I often look at Bloomberg’s survey of economists, which asks the probability of a recession in the next year. It’s an imperfect measure, but economists should… Read More

By David Ott Tags: Economy, Markets, Recession, Wall Street

18 Nov 2024

Are Rates Rising or Falling? Both.

Last week, I talked to a client who said something like, “My bonds aren’t doing well because yields are going up, but the Fed just cut rates. I don’t understand.” I can understand, and the answer is that the industry is lazy when discussing yields and rates. Let’s start at the beginning, though. The first part of the statement states that bonds aren’t doing well because the yields are going… Read More

By David Ott Tags: Bonds, Economy, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, Markets, Wall Street

28 Oct 2024

Why Not All Tech?

Over the last ten years, the oldest technology ETF I could find, the Select Spider Tech fund (ticker symbol XLK), has made more than 20 percent per annum through September 30th. A $10,000 investment in that fund would have been worth $64,172 at the end of last month. Even though I know better than to drive forward while looking out through the rearview mirror, I can’t help it: I want… Read More

By David Ott Tags: Diversification, Economy, Investing, Markets, Tech Stocks, Volatility, Wall Street

14 Oct 2024

The Hottest Stocks of All Time

An Arizona State professor, Hendrik Bessembinder, wrote a fascinating paper detailing something that we intuitively sense: a small handful of stocks have created almost all of the wealth over time, and most stocks don’t provide much in the way of returns. It’s one of the reasons we want hot tips (even when we know they aren’t likely to be hot). The paper’s provocative title is “Do stocks outperform Treasury bills?”… Read More

By David Ott Tags: Diversification, Economy, Stocks, Volatility, Wall Street

7 Oct 2024

The End (of the Election Season) is Nigh

People started asking me about a year ago what the election would do to stock prices. I didn’t know then, and I still don’t. Over the years, I’ve read many articles describing how markets fare under Democratic and Republican administrations. I’ve also done the research myself and written several of those articles. Last year, I even wrote about what happened in the year leading up to the presidential election because… Read More

By David Ott Tags: 2024 Election, Economy, Elections, Markets, Wall Street

30 Sep 2024

Optimization Overload: When Perfecting Becomes Problematic

When we launched Acropolis over 22 years ago, I thought understanding optimizations would be the key to our success. If we could just figure out “the” optimal allocation, we would be well ahead of everyone else. Of course, that’s true, but figuring out “the” optimal allocation wasn’t possible because you can’t tell in advance. My memory (which could be better) is that the software package we used then suggested a… Read More

By David Ott Tags: Asset Allocation, Economy, International Investing, Markets, Optimization, Wall Street

23 Sep 2024

Thank You Chair Powell, May I Have Another!

Early last week, few questioned whether the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates; the only question was whether they would cut by a quarter or a half of a percent. We know now that the Fed cut half a percent (or 50 basis points), but two questions remain. First, why did they cut as much as they did? Second, how much more will they cut? Perhaps I should start with… Read More

By David Ott Tags: Economy, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, Jay Powell, Markets, Sahm Rule, Wall Street

22 Jul 2024

China vs. India

I saw a chart last week that caught my attention, and I recreated it below. It shows the market capitalization weight of Chinese and Indian stocks. Finding historical weights is a little challenging, so my chart shows the year-end weight of the two countries, except in 2024, where I show the market weight as of June 30th, 2024. The picture makes it appear that the last half-year is a complete… Read More

By David Ott Tags: China, Economy, Emerging Markets, India, Investing, Markets, Stocks, Volatility, Wall Street

15 Jul 2024

Tech vs. the World

Last week, Minjung Son sent the Investment Committee some information showing that the total market value of all emerging market stocks was about $10 trillion. Ryan Craft chuckled and said that was about equal to the three largest stocks in the US. Although I’ve written about how concentrated the US market is and how emerging markets haven’t done all that well in recent years, I was amazed that three stocks… Read More

By David Ott Tags: Diversification, Economy, Emerging Markets, International Investing, Investing, Markets, Stocks, Wall Street

8 Jul 2024

When will we feel the benefit of higher interest rates?

One of my favorite long-time readers and clients asked me a good question last week, which was: As I recall, David, you said that eventually, higher interest rates would be a benefit. If my recollection is correct, when will that be? It’s such a great question, and I thought I would answer it for everyone, but unfortunately, my answer is a little mealy-mouthed: it depends. It depends on how high… Read More

By David Ott Tags: Bonds, Economy, Interest Rates, Markets, Wall Street

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