29 May 2018

Don’t Get Greedy!

I read an interesting thought experiment the other day.  The question posed was simple enough: if you knew how much a stock was going to rise in a given year, how much would you bet on it? Taking it another step, if you knew that the stock was going double in a year, would you borrow money and leverage your return?  If so, and forgetting margin requirements, how much would… Read More

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7 May 2018

Unemployment at 20-Year Lows; Time to Buy?

Market participants and the news media alike are focused on round numbers, whether it’s the hopefully forthcoming Dow 25,000 or the 10-year Treasury crossing three percent last week. Amidst all of the news last week, one round number caught my eye: the unemployment rate crossing below four percent for the first time in nearly 20 years. The chart above shows the unemployment rate, or, more officially U3, for the past… Read More

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