7 May 2018

Unemployment at 20-Year Lows; Time to Buy?

Market participants and the news media alike are focused on round numbers, whether it’s the hopefully forthcoming Dow 25,000 or the 10-year Treasury crossing three percent last week. Amidst all of the news last week, one round number caught my eye: the unemployment rate crossing below four percent for the first time in nearly 20 years. The chart above shows the unemployment rate, or, more officially U3, for the past… Read More

4 Apr 2016

The Real Unemployment Rate

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that total non-farm payrolls rose by 215,000 in March, lower than February’s upwardly revised 245,000 figure, but ahead of the consensus estimate of 205,000. ¬†January was also revised downward to 168,000 from 172,000. The unemployment rate ticked up from 4.9 percent to 5.0 percent reflecting a large increase in the labor participation rate which increased six-tenths of a percent in the last six… Read More