Years ago, before the crisis, I read a terrific book by investor Joel Greenblatt titled, ‘You Can Be a Stock Market Genius: Uncover the Secret Hiding Places of Stock Market Profits.’ Usually a title like that is a turn off for me because it implies that investing is easy and that someone’s behind the curtain who knows the secrets to making money that no one else knows. Despite the title,… Read More
It’s an interesting question. The ability to call the tops and bottoms with perfect accuracy is considered the “holy grail” of bond market investing. We spend a great deal of effort talking to clients about the risk of trying to make speculative calls – the risk of being wrong of course. Just as an exercise I thought it would be neat to imagine what it would be like if we… Read More
Although the first exchange-traded-fund (ETF) hit the market in 1993, they really didn’t catch on until about 10 years ago. The first product ever is still one of the most popular, the Spider S&P 500 ETF Trust, which trades under the ticker SPY. When we launched Acropolis in 2002 there were 113 ETFs on the market with a total of $102 billion in assets under management according to data from… Read More
Every now and then, I come across some research that really drives a point home. Yesterday, I found a terrific study by JP Morgan on what they called catastrophic losses – or what kids today might call ‘epic fails,’ which Urban Dictionary defines as: a complete and total failure when success should have been reasonably easy to attain. In the JP Morgan study, a catastrophic loss is defined as a… Read More
Any sensible person knows that you have to save money for the future. At the very least, you need to have money set aside for the so-called ‘rainy-day.’ If you don’t have a cushion, the consequence of a negative surprise can be a lot worse than if you have an emergency fund set aside. Do money and happiness go together? Can saving actually make you happier? I wouldn’t have thought… Read More
One of the justified criticisms of modern finance is that it relies too heavily on the normal distribution curve – also known as the ‘bell curve.’ In fact, there’s a classic joke (that I think I’ve told here before) about the finance professional that has his head in the oven and feet in the freezer, but on average, feels fine. Critics argue that the normal distribution doesn’t capture the true… Read More
The first investment strategy that I can remember hearing about is the Dogs of the Dow strategy. One of my parent’s friends, who knew I was interested in stocks back in high school, told me one of the ‘secrets’ to beating the market. The strategy is fairly simply: start with the 30 stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and sort them by their dividend yield. Buy the 10… Read More
I love Robert Shiller. He’s a Yale professor that’s really shaped my thinking on how to value the stock market with the Shiller PE, he wrote a book called Irrational Exuberance at the peak of the technology bubble and he won the Nobel Prize in Economics last year for his efforts in showing that markets aren’t as efficient as the other Nobel Prize winner, Gene Fama, would suggest. Last week,… Read More
My favorite author, Michael Lewis, appeared on 60 Minutes last Sunday and started out by saying, ‘The stock market is rigged. The United States stock market, the most iconic market in global capitalism, is rigged.’ A few second later, when anchor Steve Kroft asked who the victims were, Lewis said, ‘Everybody who has an investment in the stock market.’ Wow – that’s scary! Thankfully, his comments aren’t really true. It’s… Read More
Just as I enjoy and learn from Warren Buffets annual letter to Berkshire stockholders, I also read and get a lot of value from the annual report from Yale’s endowment. Here’s a link to the current report. Yale’s endowment is the largest in the world and has enjoyed spectacular investment performance, particularly under the stewardship of David Swensen, who wrote one of my favorite investing books of all time, Pioneering… Read More
