Ever since ChatGPT launched at the end of 2022, conversations about what AI might mean for the economy and our portfolios have been hard to avoid. Even a major geopolitical shock like the 2026 Iran conflict proved to be a distraction measured in weeks. I don’t claim to be an expert on AI, but I use it every day in my work and have spent time with two of the… Read More
Last week, I outlined the views of Joe Davis, Vanguard’s Chief Economist, who argues in his recent book that the economic and market outlook for the next decade largely hinges on whether AI delivers meaningful productivity gains. In the bull case, AI performs as hoped. Productivity improves, economic growth remains durable, markets benefit, and the US is better able to manage the risks associated with large and growing deficits and… Read More
A few months ago, I read Coming into View: How AI and Other Megatrends Will Shape Your Investments by Joe Davis, Vanguard’s Chief Economist. It’s a thoughtful book that I recommend. It isn’t overly technical, and it frames the biggest questions investors face today: AI, debt and deficits, demographics, potential deglobalization, and—hardest of all to measure—geopolitical risk. The core question Davis keeps returning to is deceptively simple: can AI generate… Read More
Last week, I attended Schwab Impact in Denver, Schwab’s annual conference for financial advisors — an amazing spectacle with about 5,500 advisors and another 2,000 exhibitors. I think it was my 22nd time going, and I said last year would be my last because I’d “seen it all before.” My partners suggested I go with some of the younger folks — were they calling me old? Either way, I had… Read More
I resisted downloading ChatGPT until last week because I’m increasingly skeptical about the benefits of technology. Don’t get me wrong; I love technology. I use my iPhone more than I care to admit and have to be mindful about not using it too much (and I still do). The problem isn’t technology – it’s people. It’s like food – we need it to live, and the right foods in the right amounts… Read More
