15 Dec 2025

One View of a Megatrends-Aware Portfolio

Last week, I outlined the views of Joe Davis, Vanguard’s Chief Economist, who argues in his recent book that the economic and market outlook for the next decade largely hinges on whether AI delivers meaningful productivity gains. In the bull case, AI performs as hoped. Productivity improves, economic growth remains durable, markets benefit, and the US is better able to manage the risks associated with large and growing deficits and… Read More

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8 Dec 2025

Will Artificial Intelligence Tinker or Transform?

A few months ago, I read Coming into View: How AI and Other Megatrends Will Shape Your Investments by Joe Davis, Vanguard’s Chief Economist. It’s a thoughtful book that I recommend. It isn’t overly technical, and it frames the biggest questions investors face today: AI, debt and deficits, demographics, potential deglobalization, and—hardest of all to measure—geopolitical risk. The core question Davis keeps returning to is deceptively simple: can AI generate… Read More

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24 Apr 2023

ChatGPT Did Not Write This Insight

I resisted downloading ChatGPT until last week because I’m increasingly skeptical about the benefits of technology. Don’t get me wrong; I love technology. I use my iPhone more than I care to admit and have to be mindful about not using it too much (and I still do). The problem isn’t technology – it’s people. It’s like food – we need it to live, and the right foods in the right amounts… Read More

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2 Apr 2018

Big Data, Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning

Like every industry, the investment community goes through ‘hot’ trends that grab everyone’s attention and a lot people’s dollars. One of the reason that I’ve attended Schwab’s annual conference for the past 16 years is that I like to see these trends in the form of sales pitches to advisors. I didn’t pick up on this in the very early days, but it became obvious after the 2008 financial crisis… Read More

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