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  • About
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6 Jun 2022

The Second-Most Important Element of Retirement Planning

…spending by decade for retirees, and it shows something we all understand intuitively and that we’ve seen for decades: people spend less as they get older. Part of what caught…

By David Ott Tags: Economy, Markets, Portfolio Strategy, Retirement, Retirement Spending, Wall Street
27 Nov 2023

Fooling Yourself with Private Market Math

…means owning securities that aren’t publicly traded. Private markets can include equity (stocks), credit (bonds), and real estate. Each major group has subcategories. Private equity can be venture capital, buyout…

By David Ott Tags: commentary, Diversification, Economy, Investing, Markets, Portfolio Strategy, Private Equity, Private Investment, stock market, Volatility, Wall Street
23 Jan 2017

2017 Forecast: Part 1

Last year, Barron’s offered their readers a chance to test their forecasting skills by asking a number of multiple choices questions about what might happen in 2017. I answered some…

By David Ott Tags: 2017 Forecast, Acropolis, Forecasting
8 Jan 2018

Recession Risk in 2018 is Greater Than You Think

…smart, fair and thoughtful – important traits for an economist. Mr. Emmons started with the idea that recessions come in three different varieties. First, the economy can become ‘over-extended’ and…

By David Ott Tags: Federal Reserve, Forecasting, Recession
24 Mar 2025

Warning: Fraud is on the Rise

Last week, we received inquiries about our “55 Stocks Elite Community” and the “Event Driven Magic Seven.” Of course, we don’t have an elite community or magic anything. It was…

By David Ott Tags: Fraud, Scams, WhatsApp Fraud
15 Mar 2023

Silicon Valley Bank: Something Broke

…technology industry. Unlike most banks with a diversified deposit base that includes individuals of all sizes and types of businesses in different sectors, SBV’s deposits were mostly venture capital-backed tech…

By David Ott Tags: commentary, Economy, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, Silicon Valley Bank, Volatility, Wall Street
18 Jul 2022

Looking at Inflation, Backwards and Forwards

…that deep dive this month, starting by looking at the inflation rates across the major categories. As a reminder, let me first show the weights of the major categories, and…

By David Ott Tags: Economy, Federal Reserve, Inflation, Markets, Wall Street
8 Aug 2022

Warren Buffet

…billion. Berkshire’s biggest businesses, insurance, railroads, and energy, only account for 40 percent of the total revenue. The fun companies that he always talks about, like See’s Candies and the…

By David Ott Tags: Berkshire Hathaway, commentary, Investing, Markets, Stocks, Wall Street, Warren Buffett
25 Mar 2024

Stocks are Expensive Again

…went public last week and already trades at nine-times sales. They’re going to sell a lot of memes, or whatever, to justify that price. (Does this make me sound old?)…

By David Ott Tags: Bonds, Diversification, Economy, Markets, Stocks, Value Effect, Volatility, Wall Street
1 Apr 2019

The Most Powerful Man in the World

…pays 2.45% for one year is because they believe rates short term rates will fall over the coming five years. This view is confirmed in the futures market. Based on…

By Ryan Craft Tags: commentary, Economy, Federal Reserve, Inflation, Interest Rates, Markets

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