8
Apr
2024
Why Not Tax Fee Income?
I remember listening to one of my parents’ friends talk about retirement. He was proud that his tax-free income was covering all of his expenses. Although I was in a pretty low tax bracket at the time, I liked the idea of not having any deductions from my paycheck. I didn’t know it then, but he was saying that his entire portfolio was in municipal bonds, which are generally exempt… Read More
1
Apr
2024
Feel Like Taking Risk? So Does Everyone Else
Last week, I showed four charts that all said the same thing: US stocks are a little expensive when compared to fundamentals (click here to read the article). You could fairly accuse me of saying the same thing this week, but this time, I’m using the bond market. The chart below shows the spread (or difference) between high-yield bonds. High-yield bonds, also known as junk bonds, are issued by companies… Read More
25
Mar
2024
Stocks are Expensive Again
I am as happy about the strong market rally as the next guy. Still, I was caught off guard when I saw that the S&P 500 is up 25 percent per year since the bottom around the pandemic. Of course, the Financial Times journalist said that they picked an unfair start date since stocks were down about a third at that point. But still, even if we pick a neutral… Read More
18
Mar
2024
The Return of Sound Money
There are a handful of annual outlooks that I look forward to each year, and one of them is Vanguard’s Economic and Market Outlook. The report, which you can find here, is thoughtful, thorough, and isn’t trying to sell you anything (which is high praise in this industry). They also have great titles, and this year’s was a standout: A Return to Sound Money. In their opening paragraph, the authors… Read More
11
Mar
2024
Understanding New Rules: 529 Plan to Roth IRA Conversions
I’ve said for some time that college planning is hard. I discovered this the hard way, through my own situation. Both of my daughters are in college now, and I started 529 accounts for each of them the year they were born. I got a little tax deduction and the benefit of tax-free growth. When my older daughter was a freshman in high school, I realized the problem: even though… Read More
4
Mar
2024
Trading to Win at Acropolis
Ten years ago, I wrote about a new book by one of my favorite authors, Michael Lewis, who went on 60 Minutes and declared that the market was rigged. Here’s what I wrote back then: The Market is Not Rigged. I knew that he was making outrageous claims to sell his book, but people were scared by his comments. The book in question, Flash Boys, was fun and interesting. It… Read More
26
Feb
2024
Japan: The Taylor Swift of Stock Markets?
People often tell me not to worry about the stock market because it ‘always’ comes back. That’s true for the United States and most other developed markets, but for my whole career, it wasn’t true for the Japanese stock market, until now. Last week, the Nikkei 225 price-index crossed a level that it hadn’t seen since 1989. That’s a long, long time. I Googled the most famous person born in… Read More
20
Feb
2024
China’s Interesting Times
A few years ago, I was listening to a financial podcast, and the person being interviewed said something like this: “Look, I’ve got a big China overweight in my portfolio. Look how much they’re growing – they’re going keep doing that, and I just want a part of that.” He was clear that he hadn’t done a lot of research on China, but thought it was ‘obvious’ that they were… Read More
5
Feb
2024
Presidential Elections & Stocks
A lot of people are worried about the effect of the Presidential election on the stock market. It seems like no matter who you support, you’re worried that the other candidate will ruin everything. I have no intention of making any political comments of any kind, and the best way for me to allay any concerns without making half of the folks upset is to take a look at data…. Read More
29
Jan
2024
Trading Against Cramer Just Got Harder
Last March, I wrote about a new pair of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that track the bets of Jim Cramer, the host of Mad Money, known as much for his bright lights, loud sounds, and yelling as he is for his investment advice or track record (here’s a link to my article). One of the ETFs would short his stock picks, betting that the picks would fall, and the other went… Read More