2 Apr 2018

Big Data, Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning

Like every industry, the investment community goes through ‘hot’ trends that grab everyone’s attention and a lot people’s dollars. One of the reason that I’ve attended Schwab’s annual conference for the past 16 years is that I like to see these trends in the form of sales pitches to advisors. I didn’t pick up on this in the very early days, but it became obvious after the 2008 financial crisis… Read More

26 Mar 2018

A Look at Tariffs and Trade Wars

This past Thursday, President Trump announced tariffs on Chinese imports citing security concerns and a significant trade deficit and estimated approximately $50-$60 billion in new tariffs. This was a follow up to his previous announcement of a 25 percent tariff on imported steel and a 10 percent tariff on imported aluminum. Following both announcements, stocks proceeded to sell-off on fears of a trade-war. Since the simple act of increasing tariffs… Read More

12 Mar 2018

Busting Another Wall Street Myth

Over the last few months, I’ve read multiple articles making the claim that the correlation between stocks and bonds is shifting and that the new relationship will negatively impact portfolios. One recent Bloomberg article, titled ‘Easy Allocation Models ‘Doomed’ as Diversification Breaks Down’ really set me off and caused me to take a closer look at some of these claims. The thrust of the claim is that the recent negative… Read More

7 Mar 2018

The Year So Far

We are two months into 2018 and so far it has been just about everything that 2017 wasn’t. Higher interest rates, higher inflation expectations, more stock market volatility, new tax laws, the list goes on and on. I usually have to wait for an entire year to go by before having enough to do a full recap – this year I get to do it in the first days of… Read More

5 Mar 2018

Hollywood Goes to Wall Street

I like to think that longtime readers have picked up on my love for all things markets. I also love the movies and in honor of the Oscars last night, I thought that it would be fun to list the best (and worst) Wall Street movies of all time. To make this list even more fun, I’ve included links to trailers and clips, but I have to warn you about… Read More

26 Feb 2018

Who is Jay Powell?

On February 5th, Jerome ‘Jay’ Powell was sworn in as the 16th Chairman of the Federal Reserve, following Janet Yellen, who served one term starting in 2014. Powell’s first day on the job was the sharpest day of the recent stock market selloff, when the S&P 500 lost more than four percent. I don’t think that the market fell because of the new Fed Chair, but I have read a… Read More

20 Feb 2018

The Dip Was Bought

Last week’s Daily Insight was a little long and a little technical, so today I am going to keep it short and sweet. The market appears to have shifted back into rally mode with concerns about inflation, rising bonds yields or volatility, seemingly falling by the wayside.  At this point, this correction seems a lot like the last two, although as I said last week, it’s a little too early… Read More

13 Feb 2018

Stock Market Correction: The Early Autopsy

While I think it’s far too early to say that the correction is over, the sharp rallies over the past two days are welcome signals that suggest the forced selling that characterized last week’s sharp daily losses may be over. My view of the recent market selloff has two components.  First, as I outlined on last Monday, February 5th (click here for the article), I believe that the initial cause… Read More

6 Feb 2018

Market Summary: Extended Analysis

The S&P 500 lost more than four percent, the largest single day loss for the index since August, 2011.  The losses started out modestly through lunchtime, but accelerated sharply in the early afternoon. At one point, as seen in the Bloomberg screenshot below, the S&P 500 spiked higher, but then lost back everything that was earned in the final hour or so of trading. Although we don’t know exactly what… Read More