2 Mar 2026

A Case Study in Speculation, Leverage, and Survival

At the 2025 Acropolis Investor Social — a wonderful evening, only to be topped by this year’s Social — I presented the chart below. The colors were slightly different, and at the time, I hadn’t included the S&P 500 or the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index. But the message was clear: pockets of speculative excess were forming in unusual corners of the market. I began by revealing Bitcoin. Over the final… Read More

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29 May 2018

Don’t Get Greedy!

I read an interesting thought experiment the other day.  The question posed was simple enough: if you knew how much a stock was going to rise in a given year, how much would you bet on it? Taking it another step, if you knew that the stock was going double in a year, would you borrow money and leverage your return?  If so, and forgetting margin requirements, how much would… Read More

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