Insights

Chance of Recession? About Average

A year ago, the consensus was that the US economy would likely enter a recession within a year. The yield curve was inverted, the index of leading economic indicators was in the tank, and it wasn’t clear when the Fed would start cutting rates. I often look at Bloomberg’s survey of economists, which asks the probability of a recession in the next year. It’s an imperfect measure, but economists should… Read More