14
Jan
2021
Portfolio Insights
We are pleased to provide a digital copy of Portfolio Insights, our quarterly newsletter. Table of Contents: Stock Market Summary Bond Market Review Value & Growth Investing 2021 Tax Planning The Big Picture Click here to read the issue: Q4 2020 Portfolio Insights
3
Nov
2020
Special Election Coverage!
Well, election day is finally here. Over the past few months, many clients have understandably expressed concern over what may happen to the stock market. And, while we don’t know what the results will be or when we’ll know them, we do have history to look back on. And, even though I’ve heard both candidates and countless media people say that this is the most important election in our history, all of… Read More
18
Oct
2020
Portfolio Insights
We are pleased to provide a digital copy of Portfolio Insights, our quarterly newsletter. Table of Contents: Stock Market Summary Bond Market Review Are Elections Bad for Markets? Presidential Markets The Big Picture Click here to read the issue: Q3 2020 Portfolio Insights
16
Jul
2020
Portfolio Insights
We are pleased to provide a digital copy of Portfolio Insights, our quarterly newsletter. Table of Contents: Stock Market Summary Bond Market Review CARES Act Summary The Big Picture Click here to read the issue: Q2 2020 Portfolio Insights
15
Jun
2020
Yield Curve Control
Last week, I noted that in the Q&A session following the latest Federal Reserve meeting that Chair Powell said that other monetary policy tools such as ‘yield-curve control’ were still under consideration. What is yield curve control, or YCC? Good question. A little background first. Now that the Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates to zero (okay, near zero, but effectively zero), what tools does it have? We know that the… Read More
26
May
2020
Economic Growth Expectations
Last week, I saw an interesting table from Goldman Sachs that estimated economic growth across the globe. The table looked exactly like the first four columns of this table, including the various highlights. Those columns show the annual inflation adjusted (or ‘real’) growth rates for those economies. I took their data and annualized 2020 through 2022 to see what they expect in the first year of the downturn and what… Read More
18
May
2020
Worried About Inflation?
In response to the economic shutdown caused by covid-19, the government has effectively printed almost $5 trillion dollars. Congress passed a fiscal stimulus package of $2.9 trillion and the Federal Reserve has bought more than $2 trillion in bonds from the open market. Moreover, there is a debate in Washington to see whether Congress should pass another stimulus package and the Fed has committed unlimited funds to fight the economic… Read More
12
May
2020
Since the Great Depression
One of the phrases that we see over and over again these days is ‘since the Great Depression.’ For example, the employment situation reports on Friday showed that the unemployment rate was the worst since the Great Depression. In the Great Depression, unemployment reached 25 percent, and the second worst reading until last week was 10.8 percent. While perfectly accurate, I worry a little that using this phrase too much… Read More
11
May
2020
A Look at Unemployment Rates
The unemployment numbers on Friday weren’t surprising, but they were still shocking. The unemployment rate was 14.7 percent, and although that was better than expected, it’s still the highest reading by a long shot since the inception of this data in 1948. In fact, the unemployment rate only breached 10 percent in two of the recessions since then. The unemployment rate is an interesting and useful statistic, but it attempts… Read More
5
May
2020
Nothing Can Stop America
About one month after Lehman Brothers collapsed during the 2008 financial crisis, Warren Buffett penned an opinion piece for the New York Times that I found immensely comforting. You can read the article by clicking here, but the thrust of it was that even if he didn’t know what stock prices would do in the short-run, that stocks would make record profits in the future and he was buying stocks. My… Read More