25
Jan
2017
2017 Forecasts: Part III
The Barron’s predictions continue on today – previous questions and ‘answers’ for 2017 can be seen here and here. Question 5: Which FANG stock will fare best in 2017? Facebook (FB) Amazon (AMZN) Netflix (NFLX) Alphabet/Google (GOOGL) I think that the FANG stock story is a little played out – these were the four hottest stocks of 2015 and none did anything particularly interesting in 2016. Last year, I noted… Read More
24
Jan
2017
2017 Forecasts: Part II
This week, I’m making my predictions for 2017 based on the 16th annual Barron’s forecasting challenge. I answered the first two questions yesterday, which you can find here. Today, I’m tackling two questions, starting with naming the top performing sector within the S&P 500. There are 11 sectors and Barron’s is offering five choices, so technically, it’s not the best sector, but the best sector of the choices that Barron’s provides… Read More
23
Jan
2017
2017 Forecast: Part 1
Last year, Barron’s offered their readers a chance to test their forecasting skills by asking a number of multiple choices questions about what might happen in 2017. I answered some of the questions in Daily Insights last year here and here. I revealed how my answers fared at our First Annual Investor’s Social last week, which I thought was a great success. I want to thank everyone for coming and said… Read More
17
Jan
2017
I am a Capitalist
Last week, I had a very enjoyable meeting with a valued client and long-time reader. In the meeting, he said that I should publish some of my old Daily Insights now and again, something I plan to do from time to time when I don’t have an idea (like now) on periodic Throwback Thursdays. The commentary below dates back to August, 2011, when stocks lost more than 15 percent… Read More
9
Jan
2017
Portfolio Insights
We are pleased to provide a digital copy of Portfolio Insights, our quarterly newsletter. Table of Contents: Stock Market Summary Bond Market Review TIPs Behaving Badly Where Will Stocks Finish in 2017? Dow 20,000 is Upon Us The Big Picture & Fast Facts Click here to read the issue: 2016 Q4 Portfolio Insights
9
Jan
2017
How Long is the Long Term?
One of the tried and true tenets of successful investing is taking a long-term perspective. Warren Buffet says that his favorite holding period is forever. He doesn’t always hang on that long, but still recommends that you should ‘only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10-years.’ Regarded academic Jeremy Siegel wrote the buy and hold bible, titled ‘Stock for the long run,’… Read More
7
Jan
2017
Participant Insights 4Q 2016
Click here to view Participant Insights 4Q 2016
3
Jan
2017
2017 Wall Street Forecasts
It’s forecast time on Wall Street and despite the folly of it, individuals and professionals alike pay attention anyway. On average, and according to Bespoke Investment Group, the 15 most prestigious analysts and strategists are calling for a measly five percent gain, which would put the S&P 500 at 2,356 at year end, compared to 2,234 from last week. Collectively, that’s the lowest average forecast since 2005, when the strategists… Read More
19
Dec
2016
Bond Market Fascinations: An Interview
Since the election, interest rates have risen across the curve. The Federal Reserve raised short term interest rates last week for the first time this year, but perhaps more importantly, longer term rates have also risen, which means falling bond prices. Right now, the Barclays Aggregate Bond index is still positive for the year, but the gains are muted, especially compared to the 5.8 percent gain that they enjoyed just… Read More
12
Dec
2016
Dow 20,000
When I graduated from college in 1995 and started in this industry, I was told that the current saying for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was ‘10,000 by 2000,’ referring to the turn of the century. It seemed impossible to me because, at that point, the DJIA was trading below 4,500. Just a few months before, one of my finance professors said the market was overvalued. Less than six months… Read More