Economy Archives - Acropolis Investment Management

15 Dec 2025

One View of a Megatrends-Aware Portfolio

Last week, I outlined the views of Joe Davis, Vanguard’s Chief Economist, who argues in his recent book that the economic and market outlook for the next decade largely hinges on whether AI delivers meaningful productivity gains. In the bull case, AI performs as hoped. Productivity improves, economic growth remains durable, markets benefit, and the US is better able to manage the risks associated with large and growing deficits and… Read More

By David Ott Tags: AI, Artificial Intelligence, Economy, Forecasting, Markets, Wall Street

17 Nov 2025

International Stocks Gain Some Ground

I’m amazed that the year-to-date return for all of the non-US stocks are up 26.2 percent, and the S&P 500 is ‘only’ up 15.7 percent. It seems like a long time since global stocks have outperformed the S&P 500, so I decided to do some digging. I started with a slightly different index than what I use in the market summary. The summary is all non-US stocks, but for further… Read More

By David Ott Tags: Diversification, Economy, International Investing, stock market, Stocks, Wall Street

27 Oct 2025

Get Up and Dance

Last week, I wrote about Alan Greenspan’s now-famous phrase, “irrational exuberance,” and made the case that timing the market is, at best, a fool’s errand. Greenspan uttered those words so early in the tech bubble that investors who sold after his warning and sat in cash ended up with roughly the same post-crash results as those who stayed invested through the rise and fall. This week, I found myself thinking… Read More

By David Ott Tags: 2008 Financial Crisis, Economy, Investing, Markets, Wall Street

20 Oct 2025

Irrational Exuberance Revisited

Many people are asking whether we’re in the middle of an AI bubble, and the answer, in my opinion, is probably yes. The much harder question is what to do about it. A recent analysis by Jason Furman, a Harvard economist and former Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Obama, calculated that 92 percent of economic growth in the first half of 2025 was related to data-center… Read More

By David Ott Tags: Economy, Federal Reserve, stock market, Stocks, Volatility, Wall Street

15 Sep 2025

The Labor Market is Cooling

The jobs market is cooling down. The unemployment rate in August was 4.3 percent. In the pandemic, the unemployment rate peaked at 14.8 percent, but fell to 3.4 percent in April 2023. While the modest tick up from 3.4 to 4.3 percent isn’t great, some of the recent payroll data hasn’t met expectations either. The most recent monthly reading showed that just 22k jobs were created, less than expectations. Worse… Read More

By David Ott Tags: Economy, Labor Market, Markets, Unemployment Rate, Wall Street

21 Jul 2025

Steady as She Goes: Vanguard’s Take on Growth and Inflation

Last week, we had the pleasure of hosting a very sharp economist from Vanguard who shared the firm’s latest views on the economy. I found the conversation illuminating because it helped cut through much of the noise we often hear in the financial media. I’m not suggesting their forecasts are more or less accurate than anyone else’s. That’s an impossible standard, since no one knows what the future holds, especially… Read More

By David Ott Tags: Economy, Federal Reserve, GDP, Inflation, Markets, Wall Street

16 Jun 2025

Let’s Talk About Stagflation

A few months ago, the term ‘stagflation’ was mentioned too casually and frequently, in my opinion. Investors were worried about the impact of a trade war, which is natural, but were too quick to go to “The S Word.” Stagflation is a portmanteau of stagnation and inflation, coined in the 1970s when economic growth was very low (and sometimes negative) and inflation was very high. The term stagnation was often… Read More

By David Ott Tags: Economy, GDP, Inflation, Markets, Stagflation, Wall Street

2 Jun 2025

Gold is Glittering Bright (maybe too bright)

It’s not surprising that clients are inquiring about gold, as it has risen 25.3 percent so far this year. When we started this business in August 2002, I thought gold was a terrible investment idea. However, in the 273 months since then, it has handily beaten foreign stocks and bonds, and even eked out a small win over the S&P 500. That’s right, during this time frame, gold gained 10.9… Read More

By David Ott Tags: Diversification, Economy, Gold, Investing, Markets, Stocks, Volatility, Wall Street

28 Apr 2025

Public Markets Know that Private Markets are Volatile

For the past five or so years, I’ve been inundated with pitches from alternative investment managers for private investment funds. The flagship private market strategy is private equity, which includes private credit, private real estate, and infrastructure. Like public markets, these broad categories can be broken down further, but the basic point is that anything you can get in the public market is also available in the private market. A… Read More

By David Ott Tags: Alternative Investments, Economy, Private Equity, Volatility, Wall Street

21 Apr 2025

The Trouble with Timing

When the stock market sold -10.7 percent in the three days following Liberation Day, a handful of clients called and asked, ‘Hold the course, right?’ They knew what I would say, and they all held on, and I was relieved. When President Trump paused his tariff plan the following week, the S&P 500 rose 9.5 percent. That wasn’t enough to offset the loss, but it went a long way. One… Read More

By David Ott Tags: Economy, Investing, Market Timing, Markets, Stocks, Volatility, Wall Street

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