Economy Archives - Acropolis Investment Management

21 Jul 2025

Steady as She Goes: Vanguard’s Take on Growth and Inflation

Last week, we had the pleasure of hosting a very sharp economist from Vanguard who shared the firm’s latest views on the economy. I found the conversation illuminating because it helped cut through much of the noise we often hear in the financial media. I’m not suggesting their forecasts are more or less accurate than anyone else’s. That’s an impossible standard, since no one knows what the future holds, especially… Read More

By David Ott Tags: Economy, Federal Reserve, GDP, Inflation, Markets, Wall Street

16 Jun 2025

Let’s Talk About Stagflation

A few months ago, the term ‘stagflation’ was mentioned too casually and frequently, in my opinion. Investors were worried about the impact of a trade war, which is natural, but were too quick to go to “The S Word.” Stagflation is a portmanteau of stagnation and inflation, coined in the 1970s when economic growth was very low (and sometimes negative) and inflation was very high. The term stagnation was often… Read More

By David Ott Tags: Economy, GDP, Inflation, Markets, Stagflation, Wall Street

2 Jun 2025

Gold is Glittering Bright (maybe too bright)

It’s not surprising that clients are inquiring about gold, as it has risen 25.3 percent so far this year. When we started this business in August 2002, I thought gold was a terrible investment idea. However, in the 273 months since then, it has handily beaten foreign stocks and bonds, and even eked out a small win over the S&P 500. That’s right, during this time frame, gold gained 10.9… Read More

By David Ott Tags: Diversification, Economy, Gold, Investing, Markets, Stocks, Volatility, Wall Street

28 Apr 2025

Public Markets Know that Private Markets are Volatile

For the past five or so years, I’ve been inundated with pitches from alternative investment managers for private investment funds. The flagship private market strategy is private equity, which includes private credit, private real estate, and infrastructure. Like public markets, these broad categories can be broken down further, but the basic point is that anything you can get in the public market is also available in the private market. A… Read More

By David Ott Tags: Alternative Investments, Economy, Private Equity, Volatility, Wall Street

21 Apr 2025

The Trouble with Timing

When the stock market sold -10.7 percent in the three days following Liberation Day, a handful of clients called and asked, ‘Hold the course, right?’ They knew what I would say, and they all held on, and I was relieved. When President Trump paused his tariff plan the following week, the S&P 500 rose 9.5 percent. That wasn’t enough to offset the loss, but it went a long way. One… Read More

By David Ott Tags: Economy, Investing, Market Timing, Markets, Stocks, Volatility, Wall Street

14 Apr 2025

Unhappy Treasuries

The S&P 500 has endured a tough performance run since Liberation Day on April 2nd, falling -5.4 percent. It was worse last week, down -12.0 percent (not including the intra-day lows), but recovered more than half of the losses. Less well known but still covered in the financial press is that bonds are having a hard time, too. Since Liberation Day, the Bloomberg Aggregate bond index has fallen by -1.9… Read More

By David Ott Tags: Bonds, Economy, Treasuries, Volatility, Wall Street

7 Apr 2025

Buckle Down and Buckle Up

When we meet with clients to create or review a financial plan, there’s a section where we try to get a sense of risk tolerance. We’ll show an asset allocation and its long-term expected return, and then, in big red numbers, what this portfolio would have lost in the 2008 financial crisis. We show it in percentage and dollar terms, based on the portfolio size at that time. The idea… Read More

By David Ott Tags: Diversification, Economy, Investing, Markets, Stocks, Tariffs, Volatility, Wall Street

17 Mar 2025

Sentiment Shifting

As noted above, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index received much attention last week. The index is a monthly survey of at least 500 US households, who are asked about their current financial situation, economic expectations, and attitudes toward purchasing major household items. The consensus estimate for February was a reading of 63, which would have been a little lower than the January reading of 64.7. When the actual… Read More

By David Ott Tags: Diversification, Economy, Investing, Markets, Sentiment, Volatility, Wall Street

10 Mar 2025

Nobody Likes Volatility

The headlines have been volatile lately, leading to anxious calls from clients wondering if they should take action based on what they think might happen. If you want to make some changes at the margin, that’s probably okay, but a wholesale change at this moment probably says more about your political views than an unbiased investment outlook. When we set an asset allocation policy with clients, it’s usually in the… Read More

By David Ott Tags: Diversification, Economy, International Investing, Markets, Volatility, Wall Street

3 Mar 2025

How Do Tariffs Work?

A longtime friend and reader asked me to explain how tariffs work. Of course, it’s a politically charged topic, but a simple description of how they function should be apolitical and straightforward enough. I will start with a made-up product, Wakanda’s Widgets, which are imported to the US. My made-up supply chain has three players: the manufacturer in Wakanda, a US importer that also acts as a distributor and the end retailer… Read More

By David Ott Tags: Economy, Tariffs, Wall Street

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