11 Nov 2024

Morningstar Makes Things Right?

In June, I wrote that the S&P 500 had become a growth index by Morningstar’s definition (you can refresh your memory here). I like Morningstar, especially its stock analysis, but it confuses investors by oversimplifying complex topics. While that is a laudable goal (and I try to do the same thing), they go too far. Well, Morningstar saw the problem that the investment community could see and changed their rules!… Read More

28 Oct 2024

Why Not All Tech?

Over the last ten years, the oldest technology ETF I could find, the Select Spider Tech fund (ticker symbol XLK), has made more than 20 percent per annum through September 30th. A $10,000 investment in that fund would have been worth $64,172 at the end of last month. Even though I know better than to drive forward while looking out through the rearview mirror, I can’t help it: I want… Read More

14 Oct 2024

The Hottest Stocks of All Time

An Arizona State professor, Hendrik Bessembinder, wrote a fascinating paper detailing something that we intuitively sense: a small handful of stocks have created almost all of the wealth over time, and most stocks don’t provide much in the way of returns. It’s one of the reasons we want hot tips (even when we know they aren’t likely to be hot). The paper’s provocative title is “Do stocks outperform Treasury bills?”… Read More

22 Jul 2024

China vs. India

I saw a chart last week that caught my attention, and I recreated it below. It shows the market capitalization weight of Chinese and Indian stocks. Finding historical weights is a little challenging, so my chart shows the year-end weight of the two countries, except in 2024, where I show the market weight as of June 30th, 2024. The picture makes it appear that the last half-year is a complete… Read More

1 Jul 2024

Want NVDA? You’ve already got it

I was having breakfast the other day, and someone said they missed not having the 3,000 percent gain on Nvidia (NVDA) over the past five years. Of course, I agreed, but then I returned to the office thinking that the return couldn’t have been that high. In fact, over the five years ending on June 28th, the cumulative return for NVDA was 2,926 percent, so I’ll give that to them…. Read More

17 Jun 2024

Is the S&P 500 a Growth Index?

In addition to working with private clients, Acropolis has an incredible team of professionals who manage retirement plans, principally 401k plans (click here for more information). I meet with some of the retirement plan trustees to discuss the plan’s investments. When we manage a plan, we want enough choices so participants can build a diversified portfolio but not so many choices that they are overwhelmed by the options and don’t… Read More

10 Jun 2024

Stocks Look Cheap!

Since the beginning of 2023, the S&P 500 index has grown a staggering 40% through the end of May. While some of this performance has been driven by earnings growth, a lot of it has been good old-fashioned speculation as prices have outrun earnings. This is evident when looking at prices through the lens of company fundamentals. Consider the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This ratio shows the value investors pay for… Read More

28 May 2024

The Anxiety of Private Markets

I’m writing about private markets again, which may seem odd to long-time readers because we don’t invest in private markets. I routinely think about private investments for two reasons. First, they’re the hottest topic in our industry—what are you doing about privates? Have you heard of this private or that private? Second, as I’ve said many times, I’ve invested in some to learn more about them and see if they… Read More

6 May 2024

The Best Industries to Invest

I was listening to a finance-related podcast last week (as one does), and they said they thought that the best-performing industries in the US were beer and tobacco. The podcasters chuckled because they pointed out that market returns reflect what society wants, and companies respond by providing those goods and services. Beer and smokes – that’s what America has valued the most, as the story went. I thought it was… Read More

25 Mar 2024

Stocks are Expensive Again

I am as happy about the strong market rally as the next guy. Still, I was caught off guard when I saw that the S&P 500 is up 25 percent per year since the bottom around the pandemic. Of course, the Financial Times journalist said that they picked an unfair start date since stocks were down about a third at that point. But still, even if we pick a neutral… Read More