5 Jan 2015

Economic Growth: Past, Present and Future

Each month, Bloomberg asks 75 professional economists to forecast a variety of economic indicators.  At this time last year, the median forecast among the economists for inflation-adjusted (or real) economic growth was 2.6 percent.    At this point, we don’t have enough data to say what actually happened, but it looks as though the estimates won’t be too far off base.  Assuming that the fourth quarter numbers come in as… Read More

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2 Jan 2015

Stocks Enjoyed Amazing Results in 2014

Last year was a mixed bag for stocks.  The headline index that most professional indexes follow, the S&P 500 had a great year, up 13.68 percent.  I looked at all of the annual returns since 1926, the year when good quality data is thought to begin, and found that 2014 ranks 46th out of 89 years, putting it in the 51st percentile – basically the center of the distribution of returns. Early… Read More

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