Last week, I promised to discuss the odds of entering a recession in more depth and suggested that a financial crisis is less likely this time (but you never know). If you missed it, you can read it here. I also referenced a talk I saw by local Fed official Bill Emmons, who highlighted the possibility of a recession in 2018. He wasn’t right about that (well, he only said… Read More
The most salient question today is whether or not the US and the rest of the world will enter a recession. The answer, of course, is that, at some point, we will enter a recession. I think that a much harder question is when we enter a recession. I’ve heard a few people say that we’re in one now because the first quarter’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was negative, and… Read More
I like to say that this newsletter is a mix of information on investing, financial planning, and economics. Regular readers know that I tend to focus most on investing, then financial planning, and economics is a distant third place. The current inflation environment, however, is forcing me to cover more economics, although the reality is that inflation materially impacts investing and planning. Today, I will look at inflation in isolation,… Read More
I’ve focused on bear markets for the last two weeks because the stock market briefly dipped into bear market territory a few weeks ago. Since then, markets have recovered some of what was lost, although there is still a way to go to get back to even. One of my colleagues pointed out that as long as your portfolio could reliably provide the cash flow that you need to live… Read More
