The S&P 500 has endured a tough performance run since Liberation Day on April 2nd, falling -5.4 percent. It was worse last week, down -12.0 percent (not including the intra-day lows), but recovered more than half of the losses. Less well known but still covered in the financial press is that bonds are having a hard time, too. Since Liberation Day, the Bloomberg Aggregate bond index has fallen by -1.9… Read More
We are pleased to provide a digital copy of Portfolio Insights, our quarterly newsletter. Table of Contents: Stock Market Summary Bond Market Review How do Tariffs Work? Inside the Economy Proactive Fraud Prevention The Big Picture Click here to read the issue: 1Q 2025 Portfolio Insights
When we meet with clients to create or review a financial plan, there’s a section where we try to get a sense of risk tolerance. We’ll show an asset allocation and its long-term expected return, and then, in big red numbers, what this portfolio would have lost in the 2008 financial crisis. We show it in percentage and dollar terms, based on the portfolio size at that time. The idea… Read More
I listen to a lot of investment podcasts, and one of the ones I enjoy the most is Trillions, produced by Bloomberg. It stars two journalists, Joel Weber and Eric Balchunas (pronounced bal-chew-ness, as best I can tell), and a few other rotating cast members. I enjoy listening because the hosts are Generation Xers (like myself), who are funny and down to earth. They feel like friends who talk in… Read More
Last week, we received inquiries about our “55 Stocks Elite Community” and the “Event Driven Magic Seven.” Of course, we don’t have an elite community or magic anything. It was a scam, and we were being impersonated online. Someone posted market commentaries on WhatsApp, including my photo and others from Acropolis. These scams use well-known investors like Ray Dalio, Bill Ackman, and Cliff Asness. While I would typically be proud… Read More
As noted above, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index received much attention last week. The index is a monthly survey of at least 500 US households, who are asked about their current financial situation, economic expectations, and attitudes toward purchasing major household items. The consensus estimate for February was a reading of 63, which would have been a little lower than the January reading of 64.7. When the actual… Read More
The headlines have been volatile lately, leading to anxious calls from clients wondering if they should take action based on what they think might happen. If you want to make some changes at the margin, that’s probably okay, but a wholesale change at this moment probably says more about your political views than an unbiased investment outlook. When we set an asset allocation policy with clients, it’s usually in the… Read More
A longtime friend and reader asked me to explain how tariffs work. Of course, it’s a politically charged topic, but a simple description of how they function should be apolitical and straightforward enough. I will start with a made-up product, Wakanda’s Widgets, which are imported to the US. My made-up supply chain has three players: the manufacturer in Wakanda, a US importer that also acts as a distributor and the end retailer… Read More
Last week, I said that I would broadly explain hedge funds, but I was distracted by their high costs. I promise to stay on point today. Hedge funds are pooled investment funds that are less regulated than other types of pooled vehicles like mutual funds and ETFs. They are less regulated because their clients are wealthier, which presumes them to be more sophisticated (I’m not sure that’s true, but that’s… Read More
Last September, I wrote that I would write about the four big categories of alternative investments, as defined by the CFA Institute: Hedge funds Commodities and Natural Resources Real Estate and Infrastructure Private Equity and Private Credit Well, five months have passed, and I forgot all about it, but two articles I read recently reminded me. In January, the Wall Street Journal reported on a new study that showed that… Read More
