David Ott, Author at Acropolis Investment Management

4 Dec 2023

Why We Fear Inflation

I wasn’t sure what I was going to write about this week and thought about simply starting with a picture of inflation, as measured by the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure, the core Personal Consumption Expenditure, or PCE. Like the core Consumer Price Index, core PCE strips out food and energy prices because they are so volatile, but don’t really change the numbers of the long run. Said, another way, they… Read More

By David Ott Tags: Diversification, Economy, Inflation, Investing, Markets, Wall Street

27 Nov 2023

Fooling Yourself with Private Market Math

Private investments, or simply ‘privates’ in the current vernacular, are among the hottest investments in recent years. Private investments, which are often considered one of the most prominent alternative investments, means owning securities that aren’t publicly traded. Private markets can include equity (stocks), credit (bonds), and real estate. Each major group has subcategories. Private equity can be venture capital, buyout equity, or growth equity. Credit can mean direct loans, mezzanine… Read More

By David Ott Tags: Diversification, Economy, Investing, Markets, Portfolio Strategy, Private Equity, Private Investment, Volatility, Wall Street

13 Nov 2023

30 Market Timing Signals that Worked

My subject line is taken from an article written by the PhD Head of Investment Research at Dimensional Fund Advisors (DFA), but I cheated and left out the second half of the sentence. Here’s their full headline: We Found 30 Timing Strategies that “Worked” and 690 that Didn’t. I guess I’m not above clickbait, but I also don’t have enough space to get the full headline into the subject line…. Read More

By David Ott Tags: Economy, Investing, Markets, Portfolio Strategy, Volatility, Wall Street

6 Nov 2023

Have Bonds Become More Volatile Than Stocks?

Before the big rally last week, a client asked me whether bonds had become more volatile than stocks. Although he was partially kidding, his point was right on: bonds have been volatile this year, especially in recent weeks. And the rally last week still adds to volatility, it’s just easier to stomach when prices are rising. To illustrate the rise on bond volatility, I calculate the 20-day rolling volatility of… Read More

By David Ott Tags: Bonds, Markets, Stocks, Volatility, Wall Street

22 Oct 2023

Portfolio Insights

We are pleased to provide a digital copy of Portfolio Insights, our quarterly newsletter. Table of Contents: Stock Market Summary Bond Market Review Thank You Short Sellers Inside the Economy You Better Think! The Big Picture Click here to read the issue: Q3 2023 Portfolio Insights

By David Ott

9 Oct 2023

Active Passive Word Play

I think that most people in the investment business have at one point, or another wrestled with the question about whether the market is efficient and what you should do about it, regardless of your answer. In simple terms, an efficient market quickly incorporates news and information into prices. It’s easy to find examples of market inefficiency, like when companies added .com to their name in the late 1990s and… Read More

By David Ott Tags: Active Investing, Economy, Efficient Market Hypothesis, Investing, Markets, Passive Investing, Portfolio Strategy, Portfolio Theory, Wall Street

18 Sep 2023

America’s Credit Rating

Earlier this year, when Congress seemed to come together and avoid a debt ceiling crisis, I listened to a podcast that said we would right back to the same problem in the fall. I didn’t pay much attention because I was annoyed with the government and the fall was months away. Although I am loving the cooler weather, I’m annoyed again because the deadline to deal avoid a government shutdown… Read More

By David Ott Tags: Credit Rating, Credit Risk, Federal Reserve, Investing, Markets, Portfolio Strategy, Stocks, Wall Street

11 Sep 2023

Stock Bond Correlation Changes Aren’t Concerning

Every investor suffered losses last year because the two most basic investment building blocks, stocks and bonds, both lost value. Many of the investment community’s intelligentsia are in a twist because the correlation between stocks and bonds is now positive for the first time in two decades. They say, full of sound and fury, that bonds offer less diversification now that the correlation is positive. My goal today, without getting… Read More

By David Ott Tags: Bonds, Economy, Markets, Portfolio Strategy, Portfolio Theory, Volatility, Wall Street

21 Aug 2023

What’s Happening in China?

One of the sources of optimism entering 2023 was that China was finally “reopening” after their long and agonizing Zero-Covid lockdown. Not only is the China-related optimism long gone, but markets are increasingly worried about the economic situation there. Although a lot of the news relates to a vastly overindebted property company whose bonds are trading for 35 cents on the dollar, the issues are much greater. First, growth is… Read More

By David Ott Tags: China, Economy, International Investing, Investing, Markets, Stocks, Volatility

14 Aug 2023

Thank You Short-Sellers

Growing up, my best friend’s father was a pilot for Ozark Airlines. He seemed like a pretty happy-go-lucky guy who loved flying and golfing when he wasn’t flying. His demeanor changed markedly when Carl Icahn’s backed TWA bought Ozark. I didn’t understand it much then, but I heard terms like ‘corporate raider’ and ‘asset stripping’ at the time. To my friend’s dad, Icahn was a true villain who borrowed money… Read More

By David Ott Tags: Investing, Markets, Short Selling, Stocks

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