24 Feb 2025

The Hedge Fund Alternative, Part 2

Last week, I said that I would broadly explain hedge funds, but I was distracted by their high costs. I promise to stay on point today. Hedge funds are pooled investment funds that are less regulated than other types of pooled vehicles like mutual funds and ETFs. They are less regulated because their clients are wealthier, which presumes them to be more sophisticated (I’m not sure that’s true, but that’s… Read More

By David Ott Tags: , , , , ,
17 Feb 2025

The Hedge Fund Alternative, Part 1

Last September, I wrote that I would write about the four big categories of alternative investments, as defined by the CFA Institute: Hedge funds Commodities and Natural Resources Real Estate and Infrastructure Private Equity and Private Credit Well, five months have passed, and I forgot all about it, but two articles I read recently reminded me. In January, the Wall Street Journal reported on a new study that showed that… Read More

By David Ott Tags: , , , ,
3 Feb 2025

The Roaring 20s

A few weeks ago, someone told me we’re halfway through the 2020s. I was caught off guard, but they were right. They went on to say that this 1920s is looking even better than the last round 100 years ago, so naturally, I went to the data. The chart below shows the growth of $1 invested in large-cap stocks 100 years ago (in green) and this century (in yellow). Somewhat… Read More

By David Ott Tags: , , ,
27 Jan 2025

The Cutting Room Floor (Part 2)

Last week, I promoted tonight’s 7th Annual Investor Social by showing some of the slides that I had to cut from the presentation. Since we are at capacity for the ballroom, I was scolded and told to do it again, but I’m breaking the rules because I said I would show more today! Plus, I think it’s okay to come to the show as long as you’re okay standing in… Read More

By David Ott Tags: , , , ,
21 Jan 2025

The Cutting Room Floor (Part 1)

Next Monday night, January 27th, Acropolis will hold our 7th Annual Investor Social. Although we are near capacity, there are some spots, so if you can make it, please call to make a reservation. This week and next, I will include some slides that didn’t make it into the final presentation to keep the event moving but were too good to throw away. I’ve often written here that stocks are… Read More

By David Ott Tags: , , , , ,
14 Jan 2025

Portfolio Insights

We are pleased to provide a digital copy of Portfolio Insights, our quarterly newsletter. Table of Contents: Stock Market Summary Bond Market Review Why Not All Tech? Inside the Economy Rates Rising and Falling The Big Picture Click here to read the issue: Q4 2024 Portfolio Insights

By David Ott
13 Jan 2025

Breaking Down Bonds

We’re only 10 days into the new year, and markets of all stripes are off to a rocky start. I think people intuitively understand that stocks are volatile, and after two years of 20+ percent gains for the S&P 500, a small “give-back” isn’t so hard. Bonds are another story. Most people quickly admit that they don’t understand them very well but know they are supposed to be the “safe”… Read More

By David Ott Tags: , , , , , ,
6 Jan 2025

Ring in the New Year with Market Statistics

There are many articles about where markets ended in 2024 and where they might go from here. This isn’t one of those articles, but we will send our quarterly newsletter out shortly that does and will host an in-person event, our Investor Social, at the end of this month. One factoid I read was that it was the best two-year return for the stock market since the 1990s, or in… Read More

By David Ott Tags: , , , , ,
16 Dec 2024

Final Insight of 2024!

The late Thanksgiving and my usual Christmas-denial meant that I was surprised to see that this is effectively the last Insight for the year. Yes, I could send one on Christmas Eve and another on New Year’s Eve eve, but returns have been so good this year, that I thought we could all take a break and enjoy the holidays. Before I go, however, I thought I would show what… Read More

By David Ott Tags: , , , , ,
2 Dec 2024

Chance of Recession? About Average

A year ago, the consensus was that the US economy would likely enter a recession within a year. The yield curve was inverted, the index of leading economic indicators was in the tank, and it wasn’t clear when the Fed would start cutting rates. I often look at Bloomberg’s survey of economists, which asks the probability of a recession in the next year. It’s an imperfect measure, but economists should… Read More

By David Ott Tags: , , ,