25
Jul
2022
Looking at Inflation, Backwards and Forwards
Inflation is hard to measure, which is why there are many ways to measure it. In addition to the Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) indexes that I’ve discussed in recent months, there are also Producer Price Indexes (PPI), the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) indexes, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) purchased price index, the GDP price index, and the GDP Price Deflator index. Oh my! While I don’t intend for this letter… Read More
18
Jul
2022
Looking at Inflation, Backwards and Forwards
After quietly lying dormant for several decades, inflation is today’s big story in economics and markets. We all feel it at the grocery and pump, not to mention airline tickets, which are up more than a third from a year ago. It’s also dictating central bank policy, here and abroad, and everyone is rightly wondering whether that central bank policy will push global economies into a recession if it hasn’t… Read More
14
Jul
2022
Portfolio Insights
We are pleased to provide a digital copy of Portfolio Insights, our quarterly newsletter. Table of Contents: Stock Market Summary Bond Market Review Inflation: A Deep Dive Cybersecurity at Acropolis Crypto Winter is Here The Big Picture Click here to read the issue: Q2 2022 Portfolio Insights
11
Jul
2022
Value’s Long and Winding Road
In a bear market like this one, when stocks are down -20 percent and bonds are down -10 percent, it’s hard to find good news. I learned a long time ago that in an up market, investors care about relative returns (earning 12 percent versus 10 percent, for example), but in a down market aren’t interested in that at all (losing, say, -8 percent instead of -10 percent). In both… Read More
5
Jul
2022
Visualizing the Supply Chain
Growing up, I’d never heard of the supply chain. Toys were either on the shelves or there weren’t. Today, I hear relatively young kids talking about how the supply chain is preventing them from getting the toys they see online in less than three days. It’s amazing actually. Last week, I was looking at the New York Federal Reserve website trying to find their model that predicts recessions. I didn’t… Read More
27
Jun
2022
The Chance of Recession
Last week, I promised to discuss the odds of entering a recession in more depth and suggested that a financial crisis is less likely this time (but you never know). If you missed it, you can read it here. I also referenced a talk I saw by local Fed official Bill Emmons, who highlighted the possibility of a recession in 2018. He wasn’t right about that (well, he only said… Read More
21
Jun
2022
And Now: Some Good News
The most salient question today is whether or not the US and the rest of the world will enter a recession. The answer, of course, is that, at some point, we will enter a recession. I think that a much harder question is when we enter a recession. I’ve heard a few people say that we’re in one now because the first quarter’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was negative, and… Read More
13
Jun
2022
Inflation: A Deep Dive
I like to say that this newsletter is a mix of information on investing, financial planning, and economics. Regular readers know that I tend to focus most on investing, then financial planning, and economics is a distant third place. The current inflation environment, however, is forcing me to cover more economics, although the reality is that inflation materially impacts investing and planning. Today, I will look at inflation in isolation,… Read More
6
Jun
2022
The Second-Most Important Element of Retirement Planning
I’ve focused on bear markets for the last two weeks because the stock market briefly dipped into bear market territory a few weeks ago. Since then, markets have recovered some of what was lost, although there is still a way to go to get back to even. One of my colleagues pointed out that as long as your portfolio could reliably provide the cash flow that you need to live… Read More
31
May
2022
A Look at Bear Markets, Part II
What a difference week makes! Last week, with the market down -18.2 percent from its all-time high and dipping into bear market territory at some points during the day, it felt like a bear market was a sure thing. Of course, it may still happen, but with stocks now down -12.8 percent, it doesn’t feel as imminent. Last week’s article focused heavily on bear markets, almost to the point of… Read More