The Market is Over Valued. Now What?
12 Feb 2014
The same fine reader that asked about buy-side versus sell-side research asked another useful question about market valuation metrics. Let this be a signal to all readers that I demonstrate my appreciation for questions with answers! The question refers to an article by Mark Hulbert from CBS Market Watch that looks at six different valuation measures that all come to the same conclusion – that the market is overvalued. First… Read More
Who am I to Judge?
05 Feb 2014
At the beginning of a client relationship, we ask new clients whether or not there are any constraints that we need to be bound by in managing the investment assets. Ninety-nine times out of a hundred, there’s nothing to worry about other than assets with a low cost basis and, therefore, a lot of potential capital gains taxes. In addition to any tax considerations, we want to know whether an… Read More
Client Goals Trump Everything
28 Jan 2014
Markets were lower yesterday across the board, but the feeling in the air, so to speak, was more calm, as evidenced by the four percent drop in the CBOE Volatility index. Granted, it was a four percent drop following a 40 percent increase last week, but the direction was right. Bonds fell, as measured by the 10-year US Treasury bond, as bond investors pulled away from the ‘flight-to-quality’ trade and… Read More
Emerging Markets Tail Wags Dog
27 Jan 2014
Concerns about a slowdown in China’s economy appears to be the ‘go-to’ rationale for the selloff, although there hasn’t been any new data since the Purchasing Index Managers (PMI) report that we discussed on Friday. A secondary, but possibly more plausible explanation is that investors are looking at the weakness in Emerging Markets currencies and are concerned about the end of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing program. We noted the… Read More
Time to Exit Emerging Markets?
27 Jan 2014
Emerging markets (EM) had a tough time last year, down about five percent while US markets rose by basically one-third. Given that the losses are extending into 2014, it’s natural to wonder whether we should remain invested in EM. The short answer is that we certainly don’t intend to withdraw or reduce our position there, and, in fact, we are actually considering increasing our allocation slightly. Acropolis has held EM… Read More
Acropolis vs Harvard Endowment
21 Jan 2014
I didn’t apply to Harvard because I was certain that they would not admit me. My grades were fine and scores were so-so, but at that time they were accepting only nine or ten percent of applications and I knew that the other kids had top grades and scores AND were fluent in four languages, captain of multiple teams and fought poverty on the side. Or, worse yet, their parents… Read More
How We Use Past Performance
17 Jan 2014
Yesterday’s insight about the Morningstar Manager of the Year generated a lot of interest and feedback from readers. Thank you! I appreciate your replies and make it a point to respond to all of them. While we’re on the subject, I also want to thank you for completing the satisfaction survey that we sent 10 days ago. I am pleased to report that when you were asked whether you would… Read More
Morningstar’s Manager of the Year
16 Jan 2014
Markets were higher today on upbeat earnings and manufacturing data. The S&P 500 closed at an all time high and is now up 0.07 percent for the year! Who knew such a little return could be so exciting. Much of the excitement about earnings came from Bank of America (BAC), which posted its highest annual profit since the financial crisis. Back in 2007, when BAC had a market capitalization of… Read More
Ring in the New Year Right
07 Jan 2014
I want to take a day off from looking back at 2013 and forward at 2014, but don’t worry, there is much more in store for you in the coming days. Today, I want to share with you one of my New Year’s Day rituals. Credit Review First, I visit www.myfico.com and get my credit report from all three agencies. MyFico costs about $55 for all three and there… Read More
Less Than Great Expectations
05 Jan 2014
Markets were quiet Friday, partly because last week was the last time to pack in unused vacation days or make the most out of a the partial week. Add in a snowstorm in the northeast and not much happens. Friday was a day of Fed speeches, including Bernanke’s last as Fed Chairman. Over the weekend, I watched Zero Dark Thirty, the dramatic account of the hunt for Osama bin Laden. … Read More