For a second day in a row stocks were mixed but lacked any major movement, as traders took a bit of a breather after Wednesday’s release of the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes. Oil sold off for the second day in a row but that market seems to have calmed down from the major volatility of the last few months to settle right around the $50 per barrel area. The major… Read More
On the last day of the year, it’s natural to reflect on the year that’s passed and wonder about what the 2015 might bring. In the next few weeks, I will do my fair share of post-mortem analysis and offer a few thoughts about the year to come. Of course, one of the lessons from 2014 is that it’s tough to predict the future. I’m thinking about how ‘everyone’ thought interest… Read More
After falling interest rates, the biggest surprise of 2014 is the dramatic selloff in oil prices. One of the great things about having a Bloomberg Terminal, is that you can go back in time and look at forecasts as of some date in the past. So, I entered my time traveling machine to see what the professional forecasters had to say about what oil prices might do in 2014. Spoiler… Read More
ALM Insights is focused on banks and other institutions that use their portfolio to manage risk on both sides of their balance sheet. It takes an in-depth look at securities investment strategies, balance sheet and asset/liability strategies, regulatory topics and general economic information. To view this issue, click the image below. In This Issue: What if You Called The Market Perfectly? The Impact of Fed Tightening Why Aren’t Interest Rates Higher?
If you were reading Daily Insights back in January (and I hope you were), I started the year off right with the first ever Official Acropolis 2014 S&P 500 Market Forecast. In case you missed it, here’s what I said: ‘We forecast with a 90 percent degree of confidence that the S&P 500 will close the year at 2,033, plus or minus 450 points.’ So far, we’re nailing it! Just… Read More
ALM Insights is focused on banks and other institutions that use their portfolio to manage risk on both sides of their balance sheet. It takes an in-depth look at securities investment strategies, balance sheet and asset/liability strategies, regulatory topics and general economic information. To view this issue, click the image below. In This Issue: Remember The Taper Tantrum? What’s My Duration? Bond Sector Performance
The same fine reader that asked about buy-side versus sell-side research asked another useful question about market valuation metrics. Let this be a signal to all readers that I demonstrate my appreciation for questions with answers! The question refers to an article by Mark Hulbert from CBS Market Watch that looks at six different valuation measures that all come to the same conclusion – that the market is overvalued. First… Read More
