Someone once told me that the price of a stock should only change four times per year – when investors receive new financial information about the business in the form of an earnings release. Obviously, it doesn’t work like that, but it’s an interesting idea. In any case, earnings season is upon us and based on the third quarter data so far from FactSet, it doesn’t look pretty. While only… Read More
In September, I wrote an article about the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) – how it was constructed, how it compares to the S&P 500 and why I think, to quote myself, ‘that it’s an almost worthless relic of history.’ A few readers emailed me to say that while they agreed that the DJIA is a funny index with its price-weighted construction and limited number of stocks, its performance roughly… Read More
Back in January, I wrote about how some economists were arguing that a little deflation might not be such a bad thing (you can refresh your memory here). Deflation, or falling prices (negative inflation), is widely feared by economists because falling prices lead to lower consumer spending, which is a major component of economic growth. Producers respond by slowing down their factories, which leads to layoffs and wage reductions that… Read More
We are pleased to provide a digital copy of Portfolio Insights, our quarterly newsletter. Table of Contents: The Correction In Perspective The Importance of Discipline Information Security Today New at Acropolis Janet Blinked Click here to read this issue: 2015 Q3 Portfolio Insights
When people ask me how long their time horizon ought to be when investing in stocks, I usually say 10 years. It occurred to me the other day that either I’ve never really looked into this in a very detailed way or I’ve forgotten about it. In either case, it’s now time to look. To answer this question, I looked at rolling returns for the S&P 500 since 1926 for… Read More
A great way to visualize asset class returns is to put them into what the industry calls a ‘periodic table,’ which I’ve done below. The basic idea is to order the returns of asset classes in each calendar year from best to worst. In the chart below, 2006 is the first year and the best performing asset class in gray was 35.9 percent. At the bottom of the column is… Read More
When markets fell sharply in late August, a number of traditional managers pointed their fingers at a relatively new breed of asset managers pursuing a relatively new strategy and blamed them for the spike in market volatility. There are a lot of articles covering the public blame game; here are a few from the Financial Times, the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and Barron’s. The new strategy in question… Read More
Normally when we talk about the perils of performance chasing, we are referring to investors buying into asset classes that have done well in the recent past and avoiding those that haven’t fared as well. Right now, for example, investors want to own US large cap stocks because the S&P 500 is up 13.74 percent over the five years ending Oct. 5, 2015 and want to avoid emerging market stocks… Read More
Last week, I wrote about how losses at the Swiss mining company Glencore were affecting the overall market. In the article (found here), I said that bond prices in the market often reflect credit conditions before the ratings agencies like S&P and Moody’s make any changes. The Glencore situation may be a good example because bond prices have changed markedly in recent weeks as investors worry about their credit worthiness. … Read More
The Wall Street Journal ran an interesting article over the weekend entitled, ‘Three Things to Know About Smart Beta.’ You can find the article here, but you may need a subscription. Before diving into the article, the first thing you should know is that smart beta is the marketing term for tilting your portfolio towards factors like size, value, momentum and quality. We call this factor investing, but there are tons of names in the market… Read More
