I visit Morningstar’s home page almost every day. I love their data and like about one-third of their qualitative written commentaries. Despite being a daily visitor, I noticed for the first time yesterday a ‘Chart of the Week’ and decided to check it out. Since I was unable to get a copy of the image, I strongly urge you to click here to check out the chart yourself. Essentially, the… Read More
Last year, Fidelity Investments did a study called the College Savings Indicator to measure how families deal with college costs. They found that 26 percent of parents will pay for all college costs, four percent will not pay for any college costs and the remaining 70 percent plan on paying a portion of college costs. In short, college is still a high priority. On average, these families expect to pay… Read More
Every investment strategy requires patience. Let’s say, for example, that you believe, as we do, that small cap stocks tend to outperform large cap stocks over time. You’ve got the empirical data going back to 1926 that clearly shows, with statistical significance, that small stocks outperform large ones. Small stocks are more volatile than large stocks, but that fits elegantly with the theory that to earn a higher return, you… Read More
Back in February, I wrote that the stock market was overvalued and cited metrics like the Shiller PE ratio and Tobin’s Q that show the market is high relative to history. At the time, I concluded by saying that timing the market is notoriously difficult, so pick your stock/bond allocation and stick with it through thick and thin. (Click here for the article) A few people called or emailed back… Read More
We like to say that we eat our own cooking because we invest your money the same way that we manage our own. As one of the chefs in the kitchen, I also eat a lot of things that I’m not ready to serve. For better for worse, my account operates like a test kitchen. Some of the experiments turn out unexpectedly well and it is served out to everyone… Read More
When I first saw the headline on CNBC that Bill Gross was leaving PIMCO, I didn’t pay close attention because I assumed it was one of those headlines that didn’t have any facts but asks a provocative question, like ‘Is Bill Gross Leaving PIMCO?’ It’s almost an absurd question, but that’s exactly what happened on Friday after a series of bad public stumbles, some of which I’ve chronicled already (click… Read More
Since taking over Daily Insights last July 1, the market has gone up steadily at an annualized pace of 19.69 percent through the close of business yesterday. In addition to the substantial gains, volatility for the S&P 500 has been uncharacteristically low. Naturally, I’m appreciative that we’ve all been able to enjoy a straight-up market, but I’m also realistic and know that it won’t always be like this. It’s normal… Read More
In our retirement planning model, the Acropolis Financial Forecaster, there are essentially five key variables that affect the probability of meeting your goals. They are as follows: Saving Before Retirement When to Retire Spending in Retirement Market Returns & Inflation Rate Portfolio Risk The first three factors are entirely under your control and the second one is the most critical because the timing of your retirement stops contributions to your… Read More
A recent examination of hedge funds by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) found a variety of deficiencies in almost half of the firms examined, according to the Wall Street Journal. None of the findings were particularly surprising, but the SEC appears to create a new name for an old problem: flip-flopping (and not on a wind-surfer). The problem is that some securities, especially ones that are unique or illiquid,… Read More
You may have noticed already, but I constantly refer to academics and academia. As a firm, we put a lot of value on the ideas that come from the ivory towers and have academic support for nearly every strategy and sub-strategy that we employ. We appreciate the thoughtfulness, research, peer-review process that has contributed so much to the way we think about markets. But, sometimes, academics can get a little… Read More
