13
Mar
2026
Modern Portfolio Theory Revisited
Yesterday morning, I attended the St. Louis Chapter of the Financial Planning Association meeting to hear a presentation titled “Modern Portfolio Theory 2.0.” It was excellent, no surprise, because it was presented by Michael Kitces MSFS, MTAX, CFP®, CLU, ChFC, RHU, REBC, CASL, whom I often describe as a “walking brain” when discussing him with peers. He is also the author of a reference book I own, and to which I… Read More
12
Mar
2026
Emergency Fund: The Foundation for Financial Success
Unexpected financial expenses seem to crop up at the least opportune time. The car needs a new transmission, you lose your job, or a parent or child becomes ill, and you need to reduce your hours at work in order to care for them, resulting in an unexpected reduction in income. All of these expenses, and others, can drain savings quickly. Why have an emergency fund? You can resort to… Read More
2
Mar
2026
A Case Study in Speculation, Leverage, and Survival
At the 2025 Acropolis Investor Social — a wonderful evening, only to be topped by this year’s Social — I presented the chart below. The colors were slightly different, and at the time, I hadn’t included the S&P 500 or the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index. But the message was clear: pockets of speculative excess were forming in unusual corners of the market. I began by revealing Bitcoin. Over the final… Read More
2
Feb
2026
Silver’s Momentum Crash
I would estimate that I’ve spent less than an hour thinking about silver in my career, and most of it was preparing to write this. I had heard that silver was on a tear, as was gold, but even more so. I only looked at the last year, but the chart below shows that since early February 2025, ignoring Friday, gold has nearly doubled, and Silver was up 3.5x. The… Read More
12
Jan
2026
Portfolio Insights
We are pleased to provide a digital copy of Portfolio Insights, our quarterly newsletter. Table of Contents: Stock Market Summary Bond Market Review Decomposing Stock Market Returns Inside the Economy: CAPEX Your Legacy: A Culture of Giving The Big Picture Click here to read the issue: Q4 2025 Portfolio Insights
5
Jan
2026
The History of Market Concentration
We have all noticed that the S&P 500 has become unusually concentrated. What is less obvious is how today compares to earlier eras, simply because the data are harder to find. Bloomberg published a helpful chart over the weekend using the UBS Global Investment Returns 2025 Yearbook (Dimson, Marsh, and Staunton of London Business School), extending back to 1900. Because the series is incomplete before 1925, I anchored the analysis… Read More
15
Dec
2025
One View of a Megatrends-Aware Portfolio
Last week, I outlined the views of Joe Davis, Vanguard’s Chief Economist, who argues in his recent book that the economic and market outlook for the next decade largely hinges on whether AI delivers meaningful productivity gains. In the bull case, AI performs as hoped. Productivity improves, economic growth remains durable, markets benefit, and the US is better able to manage the risks associated with large and growing deficits and… Read More
8
Dec
2025
Will Artificial Intelligence Tinker or Transform?
A few months ago, I read Coming into View: How AI and Other Megatrends Will Shape Your Investments by Joe Davis, Vanguard’s Chief Economist. It’s a thoughtful book that I recommend. It isn’t overly technical, and it frames the biggest questions investors face today: AI, debt and deficits, demographics, potential deglobalization, and—hardest of all to measure—geopolitical risk. The core question Davis keeps returning to is deceptively simple: can AI generate… Read More
17
Nov
2025
International Stocks Gain Some Ground
I’m amazed that the year-to-date return for all of the non-US stocks are up 26.2 percent, and the S&P 500 is ‘only’ up 15.7 percent. It seems like a long time since global stocks have outperformed the S&P 500, so I decided to do some digging. I started with a slightly different index than what I use in the market summary. The summary is all non-US stocks, but for further… Read More
10
Nov
2025
Tools and Trends Change — Curiosity and Continuous Improvement Endure
Last week, I attended Schwab Impact in Denver, Schwab’s annual conference for financial advisors — an amazing spectacle with about 5,500 advisors and another 2,000 exhibitors. I think it was my 22nd time going, and I said last year would be my last because I’d “seen it all before.” My partners suggested I go with some of the younger folks — were they calling me old? Either way, I had… Read More