6
Nov
2023
Have Bonds Become More Volatile Than Stocks?
Before the big rally last week, a client asked me whether bonds had become more volatile than stocks. Although he was partially kidding, his point was right on: bonds have been volatile this year, especially in recent weeks. And the rally last week still adds to volatility, it’s just easier to stomach when prices are rising. To illustrate the rise on bond volatility, I calculate the 20-day rolling volatility of… Read More
22
Oct
2023
Portfolio Insights
We are pleased to provide a digital copy of Portfolio Insights, our quarterly newsletter. Table of Contents: Stock Market Summary Bond Market Review Thank You Short Sellers Inside the Economy You Better Think! The Big Picture Click here to read the issue: Q3 2023 Portfolio Insights
9
Oct
2023
Active Passive Word Play
I think that most people in the investment business have at one point, or another wrestled with the question about whether the market is efficient and what you should do about it, regardless of your answer. In simple terms, an efficient market quickly incorporates news and information into prices. It’s easy to find examples of market inefficiency, like when companies added .com to their name in the late 1990s and… Read More
18
Sep
2023
America’s Credit Rating
Earlier this year, when Congress seemed to come together and avoid a debt ceiling crisis, I listened to a podcast that said we would right back to the same problem in the fall. I didn’t pay much attention because I was annoyed with the government and the fall was months away. Although I am loving the cooler weather, I’m annoyed again because the deadline to deal avoid a government shutdown… Read More
11
Sep
2023
Stock Bond Correlation Changes Aren’t Concerning
Every investor suffered losses last year because the two most basic investment building blocks, stocks and bonds, both lost value. Many of the investment community’s intelligentsia are in a twist because the correlation between stocks and bonds is now positive for the first time in two decades. They say, full of sound and fury, that bonds offer less diversification now that the correlation is positive. My goal today, without getting… Read More
21
Aug
2023
What’s Happening in China?
One of the sources of optimism entering 2023 was that China was finally “reopening” after their long and agonizing Zero-Covid lockdown. Not only is the China-related optimism long gone, but markets are increasingly worried about the economic situation there. Although a lot of the news relates to a vastly overindebted property company whose bonds are trading for 35 cents on the dollar, the issues are much greater. First, growth is… Read More
14
Aug
2023
Thank You Short-Sellers
Growing up, my best friend’s father was a pilot for Ozark Airlines. He seemed like a pretty happy-go-lucky guy who loved flying and golfing when he wasn’t flying. His demeanor changed markedly when Carl Icahn’s backed TWA bought Ozark. I didn’t understand it much then, but I heard terms like ‘corporate raider’ and ‘asset stripping’ at the time. To my friend’s dad, Icahn was a true villain who borrowed money… Read More
7
Aug
2023
So You Say You Want Alpha: Cathy Woods has Some
Cathy Woods is a fascinating character. Her ARKK funds were the darlings of the pandemic, focused on innovation, and were on fire. Not surprisingly, investors poured money into the funds, just in time for them to collapse. The fact that investors piled in and out isn’t Woods fault. She bought a portfolio of stocks that she believed in and stuck to her style through the boom and the bust. Last… Read More
31
Jul
2023
Glad to be Alive
For 20 years, a life insurer pulled a little less than $90 out of my bank account. What do I have to show for it, 20 years and $21,600 later? Nothing! Well, except that I’m alive, which is pretty great. When I bought the policy, I got a lot of advice about what kind of insurance I should buy. Most people I talked to said I should get simple level-premium term insurance,… Read More
25
Jul
2023
Portfolio Insights
We are pleased to provide a digital copy of Portfolio Insights, our quarterly newsletter. Table of Contents: Stock Market Summary Bond Market Review Stock Buybacks Inside the Economy The Big Picture Click here to read the issue: Q2 2023 Portfolio Insights