I thought I had heard every possible outcome of this week’s Fed meeting, but I heard an interesting new scenario yesterday from a bond specialist at the largest asset management firm in the world. Right now, we all say that interest rates are at zero and that the Fed is engaged in a ‘zero interest rate policy,’ or ZIRP. That’s not quite true though, the fed funds target rate, as… Read More
In the past few days, I’ve focused on the fact that corrections like this are totally normal and entirely fit within the financial plans that we create and that we can expect more volatility in the short run but have no new expectations about returns. Today I want to focus on what is probably the most impactful implication of the current stock market rout, which is, in my opinion, the… Read More
As usual, markets were hyper-focused on the exact timing of interest rate liftoff. While it’s clear that rates are very likely to rise before the end of the year, the debate continues over whether September or December will carry the day. Judging from the minutes, I personally have the feeling that the Fed doesn’t really know because the voting members themselves are split. Remember, while these folks are brilliant economists,… Read More
As expected, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) left short-term interest rates unchanged yesterday. Their statement yesterday along with other comments from Fed officials imply that the Fed is on course to raise rates later this year, citing solid job gains and lower unemployment. Specifically, the statement yesterday added the word ‘some’ to a key phrase: ‘The Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range… Read More
ALM Insights is focused on banks and other institutions that use their portfolio to manage risk on both sides of their balance sheet. It takes an in-depth look at securities investment strategies, balance sheet and asset/liability strategies, regulatory topics and general economic information. To view this issue, click the image below. In This Issue: Is Bond Market Liquidity Gone? Is Janet Bluffing? Looking at Deposit Alternatives
ALM Insights is focused on banks and other institutions that use their portfolio to manage risk on both sides of their balance sheet. It takes an in-depth look at securities investment strategies, balance sheet and asset/liability strategies, regulatory topics and general economic information. To view this issue, click the image below. In This Issue: At Least We Aren’t Europe Bond of The Day – When Does 2% ≠ 2%? More Problems… Read More
Even though I was out of town last week on vacation, I generally keep my ear to the ground for market news and last week that was especially true because the Fed was expected to move one step closer to raising interest rates. For at least a year, the Fed has maintained that they would be ‘patient’ about the timing of raising rates. I assumed, like most people, that the… Read More
Economists had expected that the economy would produce 235,000 jobs in January, so at first blush, it was hard to see why markets were excited by the actual number, which was 257,000. The good news came on two fronts. First, the previous two months were revised higher by a combined 147,000 jobs, which amounts to another month of job creation (a weak month, to be sure, but we’ve had plenty… Read More
In September 2011, Switzerland’s central bank, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) decided that it didn’t want the Swiss franc to become too valuable against the Eurozone common currency, the euro. For better or for worse, the Swiss franc has been considered a safe haven and during the sovereign debt crisis a few years ago, money poured into the franc. That was a concern for the SNB since it could have… Read More
In the December 2012 issue of ALM Insights, I wrote an article titled Basel III’s AFS Provision. At the time of the article, the provision detailing the effects of Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income (AOCI) on regulatory capital had been delayed due to a “wide range of views”, and the final outcome was still very much up in the air. Few in the banking industry thought that forcing banks of all… Read More
