24 Jan 2017

2017 Forecasts: Part II

This week, I’m making my predictions for 2017 based on the 16th annual Barron’s forecasting challenge.  I answered the first two questions yesterday, which you can find here. Today, I’m tackling two questions, starting with naming the top performing sector within the S&P 500.  There are 11 sectors and Barron’s is offering five choices, so technically, it’s not the best sector, but the best sector of the choices that Barron’s provides… Read More

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23 Jan 2017

2017 Forecast: Part 1

Last year, Barron’s offered their readers a chance to test their forecasting skills by asking a number of multiple choices questions about what might happen in 2017.  I answered some of the questions in Daily Insights last year here and here. I revealed how my answers fared at our First Annual Investor’s Social last week, which I thought was a great success.  I want to thank everyone for coming and said… Read More

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17 Jan 2017

I am a Capitalist

Last week, I had a very enjoyable meeting with a valued client and long-time reader.  In the meeting, he said that I should publish some of my old Daily Insights now and again, something I plan to do from time to time when I don’t have an idea (like now) on periodic Throwback Thursdays.   The commentary below dates back to August, 2011, when stocks lost more than 15 percent… Read More

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9 Jan 2017

How Long is the Long Term?

One of the tried and true tenets of successful investing is taking a long-term perspective. Warren Buffet says that his favorite holding period is forever.  He doesn’t always hang on that long, but still recommends that you should ‘only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10-years.’ Regarded academic Jeremy Siegel wrote the buy and hold bible, titled ‘Stock for the long run,’… Read More

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3 Jan 2017

2017 Wall Street Forecasts

It’s forecast time on Wall Street and despite the folly of it, individuals and professionals alike pay attention anyway. On average, and according to Bespoke Investment Group, the 15 most prestigious analysts and strategists are calling for a measly five percent gain, which would put the S&P 500 at 2,356 at year end, compared to 2,234 from last week. Collectively, that’s the lowest average forecast since 2005, when the strategists… Read More

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19 Dec 2016

Bond Market Fascinations: An Interview

Since the election, interest rates have risen across the curve.  The Federal Reserve raised short term interest rates last week for the first time this year, but perhaps more importantly, longer term rates have also risen, which means falling bond prices. Right now, the Barclays Aggregate Bond index is still positive for the year, but the gains are muted, especially compared to the 5.8 percent gain that they enjoyed just… Read More

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12 Dec 2016

Dow 20,000

When I graduated from college in 1995 and started in this industry, I was told that the current saying for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was ‘10,000 by 2000,’ referring to the turn of the century. It seemed impossible to me because, at that point, the DJIA was trading below 4,500.  Just a few months before, one of my finance professors said the market was overvalued. Less than six months… Read More

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5 Dec 2016

Occasionally, the Unlikely Happens

One of the most notable market reactions to the election is the rally in small cap stocks. For the month of November, the S&P 600 Small Cap index gained 12.55 percent, compared to a 3.70 percent gain for the S&P 500 index of large cap stocks.  It was fourth best month for the S&P 600 Small Cap index since its inception in 1994. While the results were definitely a surprise,… Read More

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28 Nov 2016

Taxes: A Hint of What’s to Come

One of the immediately obvious results of the election is that the tax code is going to change. Republicans have had several plans in the works for years that differ from what Trump has proposed on the trail, so the final result won’t be known for a little bit even though changes are a priority for the President-elect and both houses of Congress. Income Taxes For the sake of simplicity,… Read More

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21 Nov 2016

Bond Rally and Rout to Nowhere

It’s not a stretch to say that 2016 has been full of surprises! One of the big surprises from our perspective up until the election was the decline in interest rates and corresponding strong return that bonds delivered. I wrote about the surprising decline in yields as early as February and was going a little bananas as yields throughout the world went negative (here, here and here).  We never went… Read More

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