Forecasting Expected Returns

Price is what you pay.  Value is what you get.”  -Warren Buffet

How can investors know the value of an investment?  Bond yields remain very low and stocks continue to climb higher across the globe.  Using typical valuation measures, markets everywhere look very expensive.  However, investors continue to pour money into them, so they must see value.  The value of an investment is subject to an uncertain future, so how can one quantify future value with information available today?

The article below tests a method of using current market data to project expected returns over the near term.  We evaluate the US bond market, US equity market, as well as Global equity markets.  Using this method investors can be reasonably confident about what the next 5-10 years holds for their portfolio.  To read further, please click on the link or the picture below.

Forecasting Expected Returns – August 2017