28
Jun
2016
Currency Prices are Efficient Too (and sometimes wrong)
The Brexit has caused legions of analysts, economists, strategists and other pontificators to busily rework their assumptions about the world economy incorporating what seemed like an outside possibility last week to the new lay of the land. Markets fiercely incorporated their new assumptions into prices almost instantaneously – looking a chart of the British pound, you can see when the polls started to show that the Remain camp wasn’t a… Read More
27
Jun
2016
Friday Could Have Been Worse
While markets were obviously down, one piece of good news is that they weren’t chaotic. You may think I’m grasping at straws here for a silver lining, but wild macro events can cause markets to get sloppy and that didn’t happen Friday. Last August, when markets were selling off, the heavy trading volume caused a number of stocks and ETFs to behave erratically in what some people described as a… Read More
24
Jun
2016
Britain to Leave EU: Keep Calm and Carry On
I stayed up later than usual last night to see how the vote would turn out and by the time I turned out the lights, it looked like the Leave camp was going to win. Personally, I thought that they would vote to Remain, partly because of the polls, partly because I thought it was in their best economic interests and partly because voters in Scotland and Quebec stayed in their… Read More
23
Jun
2016
REITs: An Asset Class or Just Another Sector?
Back in March of last year, S&P and MSCI jointly announced that they would reorganize the Global Industry Classification Standards (GICS) so that REITs will be its own stand-alone sector instead of a component of financials. Most of the time, S&P and MSCI are competing index providers, but for reasons that I don’t know, they have worked together defining sectors (10), industry groups (24), industries (68) and sub-industries (156) around… Read More
22
Jun
2016
A Cloud on the Horizon
“Businesses are Falling Behind on Their Loans Like it’s 2008.” This is a headline that popped up on my Bloomberg TOP news screen recently. Since the financial crisis, every bank I have talked to has been focused on increasing C&I lending. After being snake bit by real estate, banks have all chased after commercial loans. That makes a headline like this particularly alarming and a situation worth further investigation. Looking… Read More
22
Jun
2016
Bullard’s Errant Dot Matches Market
In the market summary section above the performance table yesterday, I mentioned that St. Louis Fed President James Bullard had broken ranks with his fellow Fed members and his previous statements and said that he expected rates to stay even lower for longer. I made a quick reference to the famous ‘dot plot’ and said that his dots were pretty far from the consensus. I thought today I would show the dot… Read More
21
Jun
2016
Bond Market Continues to Surprise
Even though I was on vacation, I couldn’t resist checking market results right before bed (and sometimes during the day). I was shocked by two benchmark yields: the German 10-year below zero and the US 10-year at 1.57 percent. German 10-year yields have never been negative and the US 10-year has was just 0.18 percent off its all-time low of 1.39 percent, set back in July 2012. At one point,… Read More
16
Jun
2016
Financial Times Recognizes Acropolis
I am pleased to announce that for the second time, Acropolis has been named a top Registered Investment Advisor (RIA) by the Financial Times (FT). The FT starts by looking at firms with more than $300 million in assets under management, which is about 1,500 RIAs. They invite firms to fill out a questionnaire and then evaluate the companies based on six key attributes: assets under management (AUM), asset growth,… Read More
3
Jun
2016
Small Caps Simultaneously Over- and Under-Perform
You may have noticed that the small cap index in the table above, the Russell 2000, has been gaining ground recently on the S&P 500, the benchmark index for large cap stocks. The chart below shows the return for the Russell 2000 (in orange) as nearly caught up with the S&P 500 (in blue). The return difference, as we can see in the table is just one-third of one percent,… Read More
31
May
2016
Lessons from Lawn Care
Three or four years ago, I gave up cutting the grass, which I wasn’t too happy about because I really liked seeing a physical change to my yard after a few hours of work. I love my job, but at the end of a year, the numbers on a screen may have changed, but they are still numbers on a screen. It’s simply not as inherently satisfying. In any case,… Read More