Portfolio Insights
15 Jan 2016
We are pleased to provide a digital copy of Portfolio Insights, our quarterly newsletter. Table of Contents: Stock Market Summary Bond Market Review The Fed Awakens Volatility Strikes Back Click here to read the issue: 2015 Q4 Portfolio Insights
Market Forecasts Part 2
29 Dec 2015
Yesterday I posted some of the questions and answers from the Barron’s annual ‘Test Your Wall Street Skills’ quiz. Here’s a link to my article from yesterday and here is the link to the article in Barron’s (a subscription may be required). Most of the ‘big’ questions have already been answered, but there are still some fun ones: 1. Which ‘FANG’ stocks will fare worst in 2016 – Facebook, Amazon,… Read More
Market Forecasts Part 1
28 Dec 2015
Over the weekend, Barron’s put out their annual quiz for readers to predict market related events in the coming year (you can find the quiz here, but a subscription may be required). I thought it would be fun to share some of my answers – but keep in mind the quote from Warren Buffet, who said that ‘the only value of stock forecasters is to make fortune-tellers look good.’ I… Read More
Oil and Energy Stocks
23 Dec 2015
One of my favorite long-timer readers asked me today to follow up on the chart from yesterday to include the performance of energy stocks (click here to see yesterday’s chart). The best quality sector data from S&P only dates back to 1989, so this data set isn’t quite as long as what I showed yesterday, but the story is basically the same and I have to admit that I was surprised… Read More
Treasury Bills Beat Oil 30 Years On
22 Dec 2015
Although oil ultimately finished higher yesterday, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude touched on a 2004 low during the day. I know I am repeating myself, but I continue to be surprised by how far oil has dropped in the last 18 months. As you know, I think a chart is worth 1,000 words, so I’ve plotted the spot price for WTI as far back as my Bloomberg data would take… Read More
When Trends Reverse
08 Dec 2015
Last Thursday, Mario Draghi, the President of the European Central Bank (ECB) disappointed markets by not increasing their current bond buying program. It was a shock to markets, although you wouldn’t really know it from looking at the stock market. The S&P 500 lost -1.44 percent, and while that’s a fair amount, it definitely falls in the normal category and not in the shocking category. The real action was in the… Read More
Possible Law Changes Beyond File and Suspend
20 Nov 2015
Back in 1995, I subscribed to the big industry rag for stock brokers, Registered Rep Magazine. Twenty years later, I still get the magazine, although I haven’t held a broker’s license (the Series 7) for more than a decade. When I sat down to read it a few days ago, I was struck by one of the articles, which said that the popular Social Security maximization strategy, File and Suspend,… Read More
Injured Unicorns Spotted in Silicon Valley
19 Nov 2015
As opposed to the horse with a single, spiraling horn projecting from its forehead, today’s unicorn describes privately held start-ups that are worth more than $1 billion: think Uber, AirBnB, Snapchat or Pinterest (actually, these are all considered ‘deca-corns’ because they are worth more than $10 billion). Current estimates suggest that there are now 143 unicorns in existence today and are supposedly worth half a trillion dollars, but it’s actually hard… Read More
What Retirees (and Pre-Retirees) Worry About
18 Nov 2015
One of the interesting (but less than encouraging) data points in the inflation data is that medical care service costs increased 3.0 percent in the 12 months ending in October while core inflation was 1.9 percent (core inflation excludes volatile food and energy costs). Everyone at Acropolis knows that retirees and pre-retirees worry a lot about healthcare costs. A recent UBS study of 1,849 high net worth individuals with an… Read More
A Big Bet on Emerging Markets
17 Nov 2015
For most of last week, I was in Boston at Schwab’s IMPACT conference – my fourteenth pilgrimage that includes prominent speakers, workshops and a football field size area of vendors pitching everything under the financial services sun. This year featured more academics than usual, which I found particularly engaging. One of the sessions was actually a debate between academic Roger Ibbotson (who also manages some money) and Rob Arnott, a… Read More