Although it’s come and gone, I am still thinking about the price spike in the 10-year US Treasury note that occurred last Wednesday. Someone from Blackrock told me yesterday that it was the most volatile day for the 10-year since 1980, which implies that it was more volatile than 99.91 percent of all of those trading sessions. You can see from the chart that all of wilding was in the… Read More
Years ago, before the crisis, I read a terrific book by investor Joel Greenblatt titled, ‘You Can Be a Stock Market Genius: Uncover the Secret Hiding Places of Stock Market Profits.’ Usually a title like that is a turn off for me because it implies that investing is easy and that someone’s behind the curtain who knows the secrets to making money that no one else knows. Despite the title,… Read More
It’s an interesting question. The ability to call the tops and bottoms with perfect accuracy is considered the “holy grail” of bond market investing. We spend a great deal of effort talking to clients about the risk of trying to make speculative calls – the risk of being wrong of course. Just as an exercise I thought it would be neat to imagine what it would be like if we… Read More
ALM Insights is focused on banks and other institutions that use their portfolio to manage risk on both sides of their balance sheet. It takes an in-depth look at securities investment strategies, balance sheet and asset/liability strategies, regulatory topics and general economic information. To view this issue, click the image below. In This Issue: What if You Called The Market Perfectly? The Impact of Fed Tightening Why Aren’t Interest Rates Higher?
Although the first exchange-traded-fund (ETF) hit the market in 1993, they really didn’t catch on until about 10 years ago. The first product ever is still one of the most popular, the Spider S&P 500 ETF Trust, which trades under the ticker SPY. When we launched Acropolis in 2002 there were 113 ETFs on the market with a total of $102 billion in assets under management according to data from… Read More
Every now and then, I come across some research that really drives a point home. Yesterday, I found a terrific study by JP Morgan on what they called catastrophic losses – or what kids today might call ‘epic fails,’ which Urban Dictionary defines as: a complete and total failure when success should have been reasonably easy to attain. In the JP Morgan study, a catastrophic loss is defined as a… Read More
As I described yesterday, the S&P 500 is on a hot streak this year, up 9.68 percent so far this year through yesterday. I should also note that outside of REITs (which I mentioned a few days ago) and Emerging Markets, the S&P 500 is the hottest thing going this year. Given that REITs and Emerging Markets are relatively small portfolio weights, you might not be feeling the benefit from… Read More
Any sensible person knows that you have to save money for the future. At the very least, you need to have money set aside for the so-called ‘rainy-day.’ If you don’t have a cushion, the consequence of a negative surprise can be a lot worse than if you have an emergency fund set aside. Do money and happiness go together? Can saving actually make you happier? I wouldn’t have thought… Read More
ALM Insights is focused on banks and other institutions that use their portfolio to manage risk on both sides of their balance sheet. It takes an in-depth look at securities investment strategies, balance sheet and asset/liability strategies, regulatory topics and general economic information. To view this issue, click the image below. In This Issue: Remember The Taper Tantrum? What’s My Duration? Bond Sector Performance
One of my favorite people in our industry is Cliff Asness, founder and current mouthpiece for AQR, one of the mutual fund companies that we use. His academic background is very strong, he got his PhD in finance from the University of Chicago, the intellectual home of efficient markets, but wrote his dissertation on momentum, the most significant critique of the efficient market hypothesis. His advisor was none other than… Read More
