2
Jun
2025
Gold is Glittering Bright (maybe too bright)
It’s not surprising that clients are inquiring about gold, as it has risen 25.3 percent so far this year. When we started this business in August 2002, I thought gold was a terrible investment idea. However, in the 273 months since then, it has handily beaten foreign stocks and bonds, and even eked out a small win over the S&P 500. That’s right, during this time frame, gold gained 10.9… Read More
19
May
2025
Following the Tornado, Risk is on My Mind
On Friday, an EF-3 tornado hit St. Louis County and City. At least five people passed away, and thousands of homes were damaged, some beyond repair. Although the official National Weather Service report isn’t complete, initial reports suggest that the tornado likely formed in Clayton, moved northeast through Forest Park, DeBaliviere Place, Fountain Park, the Greater Ville, O’Fallon Park, and crossed the Mississippi into Illinois. My home is in DeBaliviere… Read More
12
May
2025
Graduation & Compounding
Many thanks to Ryan Craft for writing last week’s market summary. I couldn’t write last week at the last minute because my eldest child unexpectedly won an award from the English Department a day before graduation, and we had to change our travel plans. Graduation was so exciting – I couldn’t have been more proud. I’d been hoping for that day since before she was born, and within a month… Read More
28
Apr
2025
Public Markets Know that Private Markets are Volatile
For the past five or so years, I’ve been inundated with pitches from alternative investment managers for private investment funds. The flagship private market strategy is private equity, which includes private credit, private real estate, and infrastructure. Like public markets, these broad categories can be broken down further, but the basic point is that anything you can get in the public market is also available in the private market. A… Read More
21
Apr
2025
The Trouble with Timing
When the stock market sold -10.7 percent in the three days following Liberation Day, a handful of clients called and asked, ‘Hold the course, right?’ They knew what I would say, and they all held on, and I was relieved. When President Trump paused his tariff plan the following week, the S&P 500 rose 9.5 percent. That wasn’t enough to offset the loss, but it went a long way. One… Read More
14
Apr
2025
Unhappy Treasuries
The S&P 500 has endured a tough performance run since Liberation Day on April 2nd, falling -5.4 percent. It was worse last week, down -12.0 percent (not including the intra-day lows), but recovered more than half of the losses. Less well known but still covered in the financial press is that bonds are having a hard time, too. Since Liberation Day, the Bloomberg Aggregate bond index has fallen by -1.9… Read More
11
Apr
2025
Portfolio Insights
We are pleased to provide a digital copy of Portfolio Insights, our quarterly newsletter. Table of Contents: Stock Market Summary Bond Market Review How do Tariffs Work? Inside the Economy Proactive Fraud Prevention The Big Picture Click here to read the issue: 1Q 2025 Portfolio Insights
7
Apr
2025
Buckle Down and Buckle Up
When we meet with clients to create or review a financial plan, there’s a section where we try to get a sense of risk tolerance. We’ll show an asset allocation and its long-term expected return, and then, in big red numbers, what this portfolio would have lost in the 2008 financial crisis. We show it in percentage and dollar terms, based on the portfolio size at that time. The idea… Read More
31
Mar
2025
ETF Hotsauce
I listen to a lot of investment podcasts, and one of the ones I enjoy the most is Trillions, produced by Bloomberg. It stars two journalists, Joel Weber and Eric Balchunas (pronounced bal-chew-ness, as best I can tell), and a few other rotating cast members. I enjoy listening because the hosts are Generation Xers (like myself), who are funny and down to earth. They feel like friends who talk in… Read More
24
Mar
2025
Warning: Fraud is on the Rise
Last week, we received inquiries about our “55 Stocks Elite Community” and the “Event Driven Magic Seven.” Of course, we don’t have an elite community or magic anything. It was a scam, and we were being impersonated online. Someone posted market commentaries on WhatsApp, including my photo and others from Acropolis. These scams use well-known investors like Ray Dalio, Bill Ackman, and Cliff Asness. While I would typically be proud… Read More