Normally when we talk about the perils of performance chasing, we are referring to investors buying into asset classes that have done well in the recent past and avoiding those that haven’t fared as well. Right now, for example, investors want to own US large cap stocks because the S&P 500 is up 13.74 percent over the five years ending Oct. 5, 2015 and want to avoid emerging market stocks… Read More
Last week, I wrote about how losses at the Swiss mining company Glencore were affecting the overall market. In the article (found here), I said that bond prices in the market often reflect credit conditions before the ratings agencies like S&P and Moody’s make any changes. The Glencore situation may be a good example because bond prices have changed markedly in recent weeks as investors worry about their credit worthiness. … Read More
The Wall Street Journal ran an interesting article over the weekend entitled, ‘Three Things to Know About Smart Beta.’ You can find the article here, but you may need a subscription. Before diving into the article, the first thing you should know is that smart beta is the marketing term for tilting your portfolio towards factors like size, value, momentum and quality. We call this factor investing, but there are tons of names in the market… Read More
I recently stumbled upon a fascinating website, the Milken Institute’s Best Cities for Successful Aging. I was doing some research to try and determine whether moving to a state without income tax like Florida or Texas really made a difference to an overall retirement plan. I created a hypothetical client and ran 10,000 scenarios that were identical other than the state where the client retired. As I expected, the difference… Read More
Stocks enjoyed a positive finish to a tough quarter, as the S&P 500 gained 1.91 percent yesterday but was still down -6.44 percent for the quarter. It was the worst quarter for most markets since 2011 during the first phase of the European debt crisis. Somewhat surprisingly, markets shook off weak purchasing manager data from Chicago and the onset of Russian airstrikes in Syria. Some investors believe that more stimulus… Read More
As stocks fell over the past several weeks, the junk bond market has also sold off as seen in the chart below. The orange line follows the Barclays High Yield, or junk, bond index and you can see how it has roughly tracked the S&P 500 this year. Some commentators have argued that junk bonds served as a bit of a ‘canary in the coal mine’ because they dropped off… Read More
The selloff in stocks yesterday was a little different than what we’ve seen so far this month, both in terms of its magnitude, but also its suspected causes. Last month stocks sold off more sharply than they did yesterday, but things had quieted down a little bit, as you can see in the chart below. When stocks fell last month, the concerns were macro in nature: the slowdown in China,… Read More
Vanguard put out an interesting research piece on Friday, which you can read in full here, arguing that the bursting stock market bubble in China isn’t as big of a risk as a potential fall in their housing market. According to their research, housing is a much larger portion of total household wealth than stock ownership, which is the opposite of the US. In China, housing makes up 43 percent… Read More
Although there was no specific catalyst for yesterday’s trading action, investors are clearly worried about global growth. The chart below shows the most recent Forecasts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that were produced in July. While the global growth picture is flat and advanced economies are growing, according to their projections, emerging markets and China are slowing down. This isn’t news: the market volatility that we’ve been dealing with… Read More
When we look at our financial planning model, a lot of clients say something like, ‘well, I’m never going to make it that long anyway.’ According to Society of Actuaries, more than half of Americans underestimate their life expectancy and that their financial planning time horizons are too short. When asked how long a person their age and gender was expected to live, 40 percent of respondents gave answers that… Read More
