We are two months into 2018 and so far it has been just about everything that 2017 wasn’t. Higher interest rates, higher inflation expectations, more stock market volatility, new tax laws, the list goes on and on. I usually have to wait for an entire year to go by before having enough to do a full recap – this year I get to do it in the first days of… Read More
While I think it’s far too early to say that the correction is over, the sharp rallies over the past two days are welcome signals that suggest the forced selling that characterized last week’s sharp daily losses may be over. My view of the recent market selloff has two components. First, as I outlined on last Monday, February 5th (click here for the article), I believe that the initial cause… Read More
The S&P 500 lost more than four percent, the largest single day loss for the index since August, 2011. The losses started out modestly through lunchtime, but accelerated sharply in the early afternoon. At one point, as seen in the Bloomberg screenshot below, the S&P 500 spiked higher, but then lost back everything that was earned in the final hour or so of trading. Although we don’t know exactly what… Read More
Almost a year ago to the day, I wrote an article that discussed a well-known quote from a famous investor, Sir John Templeton. He said that ‘Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism and die in euphoria.’ Clearly, the bull market that we’ve enjoyed for the last nine years was born in the pessimism of the 2008 global financial crisis. The rally grew on optimism and… Read More
The yield curve has been a very hot topic lately in the financial news media. Multiple times a day, there are commentators pointing to the yield curve as a sign that markets are on the verge of imploding. Is it time to panic? The Federal Reserve has continued to push short term rates higher throughout 2017. Long term rates have responded by falling 10 bps. This has led to a… Read More
“Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.” -Warren Buffet How can investors know the value of an investment? Bond yields remain very low and stocks continue to climb higher across the globe. Using typical valuation measures, markets everywhere look very expensive. However, investors continue to pour money into them, so they must see value. The value of an investment is subject to an uncertain future, so how… Read More
During the 2008 financial crisis, the Federal Reserved used a variety of tactics to stabilize the economy and financial system. First they cut interest rates, but when they got to zero and couldn’t cut anymore, they started buying bonds in the open market in a process call quantitative easing (QE). The program was controversial because a lot of people thought that it would stoke inflation. While that didn’t come to… Read More
At this point, my view is that most of the market activity since the election can really be broken down into two distinct categories. The first category are stock sectors that clearly stand to win or lose from expected changes in government policy. The most obvious winner is bank stocks, which will benefit from lighter regulation. The big loser is hospital stocks that will lose Obamacare related revenue. The second… Read More
Even though the first day of fall was on September 22nd this year, it’s only when we enter the fourth quarter that I start to think about the changing leaves, shorter days, corduroy pants, flannel sheets and raking the leaves. I do love summer, which I mentally compartmentalize into the third quarter and 2016’s was particularly enjoyable given the strong market performance across the board. The chart below includes the… Read More
One of the big concerns coming out of the financial crisis was runaway inflation. Central banks around the world were buying bonds on a massive scale, which is effectively equal to printing money. In 2010, a group of highly respected economists and investors, including Cliff Asness, Richard Bove, Niall Ferguson, James Grant and John Taylor, wrote an open letter to then Fed Chair Ben Bernanke, arguing against more quantitative easing… Read More
