Inflation Archives - Page 3 of 6 - Acropolis Investment Management

13 Jun 2022

Inflation: A Deep Dive

I like to say that this newsletter is a mix of information on investing, financial planning, and economics. Regular readers know that I tend to focus most on investing, then financial planning, and economics is a distant third place. The current inflation environment, however, is forcing me to cover more economics, although the reality is that inflation materially impacts investing and planning. Today, I will look at inflation in isolation,… Read More

By David Ott Tags: Bonds, Economy, Inflation, Interest Rates, Markets, Volatility, Wall Street

31 May 2022

A Look at Bear Markets, Part II

What a difference week makes! Last week, with the market down -18.2 percent from its all-time high and dipping into bear market territory at some points during the day, it felt like a bear market was a sure thing. Of course, it may still happen, but with stocks now down -12.8 percent, it doesn’t feel as imminent. Last week’s article focused heavily on bear markets, almost to the point of… Read More

By David Ott Tags: Bear Markets, Economy, Inflation, Interest Rates, Investing, Markets, Volatility, Wall Street

23 May 2022

A Look at Bear Markets

Even though the S&P 500 closed flat on Friday, it was down substantially in the middle of the day, down -2.3 percent in the late morning. At that moment, the S&P was down more than 20 percent from the all-time high set in January. Since a bear market is generally defined as a -20 percent decline from the recent peak (also called a drawdown), a lot of digital ink was… Read More

By David Ott Tags: Bear Markets, Economy, Inflation, Markets, Volatility, Wall Street

11 Apr 2022

Economists Estimate the Probability of Recession

In the market summary above, I referenced the fact that the yield on the ten-year Treasury note is back above the yield on the two-year Treasury note. There was a relatively brief period where that wasn’t true, and a lot of consternation in the media and among investors that the inverted yield curve (when the shorter-term yield is higher than the longer-term yield) meant a recession was coming. In my… Read More

By David Ott Tags: Bonds, Economy, Federal Reserve, Inflation, Interest Rates, Investing, Markets, Recession, Wall Street

28 Mar 2022

Stagflation & Misery

The term ‘stagflation’ hasn’t been part of our everyday vocabulary for years, but I am seeing it more and more, and Google Trends confirmed my casual observation. Stagflation, a portmanteau of stagnation and inflation, is defined by Wikipedia as a period where ‘the inflation rate is high, economic growth rate slows, and unemployment is steadily high.’ The thrust of the articles that I am seeing argue that we’re already in… Read More

By David Ott Tags: Inflation, Interest Rates, Markets, Stagflation, Unemployment Rate, Wall Street

20 Dec 2021

Alternatives are Tough

I wrote a lot about inflation in 2021 for pretty obvious reasons. I also wrote that bonds are difficult investments to own right now because the expected inflation rate over the coming decade is more than the current interest rates. After receiving a lot of inquiries about bond alternatives like REITs, utilities, and the like, I wrote an article shooting down those too. This article is a variant on that… Read More

By David Ott Tags: Alternative Investments, Bonds, Economy, Inflation, Interest Rates, Investing, Markets, Portfolio Strategy, Stocks, Volatility

6 Dec 2021

Illustrating Inflation

For years now, inflation has been an afterthought in the investing conversation because it’s been so dormant. In fact, for a few years, the worry was centered around deflation. And yet, here we are, somewhere in a pandemic (I’d like to think near the end, but omicron is a good reminder that we just don’t know what’s around the corner), and we’re talking about supply-chain bottlenecks and looking at government… Read More

By David Ott Tags: Economy, Forecasting, Inflation, Markets, Wall Street

15 Nov 2021

Inflation Runs Hot

This past Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for October, which showed inflation on consumer goods growing at a rate not seen in thirty years. This concerning trend is illustrated in the chart below. The orange line tracks the annual growth rate of the CPI since the 1960’s. This line includes all prices and categories. The white line tracks the same index, but… Read More

By Ryan Craft Tags: Economy, Inflation, Investing, Markets, Portfolio Strategy, Wall Street

13 Sep 2021

Inflation and the Price of Milk

The inflation that we all worried about earlier this year is showing up in the monthly numbers. It’s too early to say whether the higher readings are transitory, as the Fed would say, or here to stay. The most recent reading showed that inflation for the 12-months ending in July is 4.2 percent for ‘core’ inflation, and 5.3 percent for headline inflation. What’s core inflation? It’s the headline number but… Read More

By David Ott Tags: Bonds, Economy, Federal Reserve, Inflation, Interest Rates, Markets, Wall Street

9 Aug 2021

The Fed and the Long Term

Over the weekend, I watched a Front Line documentary on PBS that came out in July, called The Power of the Fed. You can watch it here, although you may have to be a member (like me!). The documentary chronicles the power of the Federal Reserve, with particular attention to the bond-buying program called quantitative easing that followed the 2008 global financial crisis. The documentary makes the case that the… Read More

By David Ott Tags: Economy, Federal Reserve, Inflation, Markets, Wall Street

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